With President Trump’s tariffs still fresh in the minds of jittery investors, many of whom are scrambling to beef up their defensive exposure to brace for what could be a turbulent next few weeks and months of deal-making (or lack thereof), it now seems like a time to put things into perspective and to make a move that’d best position investors to do well over the long haul. Indeed, we’re investing in times of great uncertainty. But it may not be the best time to rush to the exits, especially since the announcement of a deal (or just talks “going well”) could be enough to give markets the green light to head higher again.
Of course, in such a turbulent market, investors should look to the so-called “safe-haven” assets for a way to smooth out any choppiness headed our way. The TSX Index has been relatively stable compared to the S&P 500 and certainly the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 amid the Trump correction. Even if a recession on both sides of the border becomes unavoidable, the following pair, I believe, has what it takes to keep growing earnings and sales, as most other firms are dragged down by tariffs.
Barrick Gold
First, we have Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX), an underrated gold miner that’s gained an outstanding 21.5% year to date. As gold prices continue to skyrocket over profound Trump tariff-related uncertainties, I’d be inclined to stay aboard shares of the $48 billion mining juggernaut.
Sure, ABX shares are still nowhere near their all-time highs. But they’re a far cheaper way to play gold’s ascent than bullion right now. As the company aims for 30% production growth by 2030, it may be just a matter of time before ABX shares make new highs of their own. At the time of this writing, shares are going for a mere 16.45 times trailing price to earnings (P/E) or 11.9 times forward P/E.
And with a 2.1% dividend yield, Barrick isn’t just a cheaper way to bet on gold; it’s a bountiful and productive way to bet on a metal that doesn’t technically produce anything (arguably, bullion holders need to pay for its secure storage). All considered, Barrick is a literal gold mine that’s hiding in plain sight. And I think it’s the best way to play gold right as the metal breaks past US$3,300 per ounce.
Waste Connections
Waste Connections (TSX:WCN) is by no means an exciting name. Arguably, it’s an “anti-artificial intelligence” play of sorts, with its low-tech, boring, but easy-to-comprehend business model. Though it’s not a name that’ll hog the headlines, the firm has one of the widest economic moats protecting its solid, inflation-resilient cash flow stream. Indeed, going into stagflation, WCN shares ought to be worth a heftier premium. Perhaps it’s no mystery why billionaire legends like Bill Gates (through his fund Cascade Investments) have a considerable amount of exposure to the waste collection firm Waste Management.
With shares at new all-time highs just north of $273 per share, I’d not sleep on the name as it may very well represent one of the few glimmers of certainty and recession-resilient earnings growth in a market plagued by uncertainty, woe, and dread. At 26.25 times forward P/E, shares look cheap relative to where the economy stands.
