The ongoing rally in gold prices has pushed valuations of TSX gold stocks higher in 2025. One such TSX stock is OceanaGold (TSX: OGC), which is up 74% in the last 12 months and 167% in the last three years.
Valued at a market cap of $4.3 billion, OceanaGold is engaged in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties in the U.S., Philippines, and New Zealand.
Let’s see if you should buy, sell, or hold this OGC stock in July 2025.
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How did the TSX mining stock perform in Q1 of 2025?
OceanaGold delivered an exceptional performance in the first quarter (Q1), generating US$69 million in free cash flow supported by record quarterly average realized gold prices of US$2,858 per ounce. The company’s unhedged position enabled it to fully capitalize on rising gold prices, achieving a free cash flow per ounce of US$585, which outperformed industry averages. With gold prices currently US$500 higher than Q1 averages, OceanaGold is well-positioned for continued strong cash generation.
OceanaGold maintains a debt-free balance sheet with US$228 million in cash, up 18% over the last three months. Management achieved strong cost control with all-in sustaining costs of US$1,796 per ounce, well below full-year guidance of US$1,900-$2,050.
EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) reached US$192 million with a 53% margin, while earnings per share of US$0.14 matched quarterly records.
OceanaGold emphasized that critical waste stripping operations at both Haile and Macraes remain on track to unlock access to high-grade ore in Q4, positioning the gold miner for strong production growth into 2026.
At Haile, Ledbetter Phase 3 stripping is progressing as planned following the completion of Phase 2, with the new Pisces discovery adding exploration upside. Macraes continues to benefit from the completion of planned autoclave maintenance, with Innes Mills 8 waste stripping expected to finish in Q3, delivering higher-grade ore to accelerate year-end production.
The Fast-track application for the transformational Waihi North project has been submitted and deemed complete. This project will be a key driver of future growth, with US$45 million in early works funding ensuring readiness for immediate construction upon approval.
OGC’s elevated exploration spending across all sites, particularly at the high-grade Wharekirauponga prospect, demonstrates a commitment to organic growth opportunities.
Is the OceanaGold stock undervalued?
OceanaGold’s 16% trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield indicates exceptional capital efficiency. Analysts tracking the TSX stock forecast adjusted earnings to expand from US$0.87 per share in 2024 to US$2.65 per share in 2026. Comparatively, free cash flow is forecast to increase from US$245 million in 2024 to US$475 million by 2026.
A widening free cash flow base should translate to consistent dividend hikes. In 2025, the annual dividend expense for OGC stock is forecast at US$14 million, indicating a payout ratio of just 6%. Analysts expect OGC to triple its dividend payout from US$0.03 per share in 2024 to US$0.09 in 2026.
Today, the TSX stock is priced at six times forward earnings. If it maintains a similar multiple, the stock is expected to trade around $22 in early 2026, indicating an upside potential of 18% from current levels.
With current gold prices providing leverage to already strong cash flows and multiple growth catalysts ahead, OceanaGold appears well-positioned for continued outperformance in the gold sector.
