Lightspeed Commerce (TSX: LSPD) recently wrapped up its fiscal 2025 with a mix of exciting progress and a few growing pains. While the tech space hasn’t been easy on valuations lately, Lightspeed still hit a major milestone: crossing the billion-dollar mark in annual revenue. Now, with a clear plan in place for 2026 and beyond, the big question is: where will Lightspeed stock be three years from now?
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Recent earnings
Earnings for Lightspeed stock are just around the corner. First, we’ll take a quick look back. Let’s start with what Lightspeed stock has just accomplished. Fiscal 2025 saw total revenue jump 18% to US$1.08 billion. In the fourth quarter alone, revenue climbed 10% year over year to US$253.4 million, with transaction-based revenue growing faster than subscriptions. Gross margin improved to 44%, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came in at US$53.7 million for the year, a big step up from just US$1.3 million the year before.
Lightspeed stock has also been reshaping its business. It streamlined its focus on retail customers in North America and hospitality clients in Europe. This isn’t about casting a wide net anymore; it’s about doubling down where they win. That shift includes strategic product investments, like artificial intelligence (AI) tools for building websites, a more unified point-of-sale (POS) and payment system, and smarter inventory and kitchen tools for hospitality clients. On top of that, Lightspeed stock grew its monthly average revenue per user (ARPU) by 13% to US$489.
What to watch
Still, the road hasn’t been perfectly smooth. A massive non-cash goodwill impairment charge of over US$556 million led to a net loss of US$575.9 million in the fourth quarter. The company also saw its total customer locations revised downward as it changed how it counts eCommerce sites. Even so, the business fundamentals appear stronger than the headline net loss suggests. After adjusting for one-time items, Lightspeed stock actually delivered US$69.5 million in adjusted income for the year.
Now, looking ahead to fiscal 2026, Lightspeed stock is projecting revenue growth between 10% and 12%, gross profit growth around 14%, and adjusted EBITDA of US$68 to US$72 million. These aren’t moonshot targets, but grounded in expanding the outbound sales team and investing over 35% more into product development. Both will be on view during upcoming earnings.
Looking ahead
But the more interesting numbers come from its three-year outlook. Lightspeed stock is aiming for a gross profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% to 18% and an adjusted EBITDA CAGR of about 35%. That means if all goes according to plan, gross profit could land in the $1.6 billion range by 2028. Adjusted EBITDA could also double or more from today’s levels.
The company is also serious about creating value for shareholders. Over the past year, it repurchased nearly 19 million shares, about 12% of its total outstanding shares, for $219 million. That’s not something you usually see from a growth company unless it’s feeling confident in its future.
Bottom line
So, where will Lightspeed stock be in three years? If it hits its targets, the business will be significantly more profitable, with stronger margins, fewer shares, and a more focused customer base. Investors should still expect some bumps, especially with competition heating up in both retail and hospitality tech. But with a billion-dollar revenue base, increasing ARPU, and expanding profitability, Lightspeed stock has set itself up for a much brighter narrative in the years ahead.
In short, Lightspeed today looks like a company that’s ready to move past growing pains and into its next chapter. It may not be flashy right now, but by 2028, this could be one of the most quietly powerful names in Canadian tech.
