Commodities are always a bit of a roller coaster, and right now, copper is no exception. Prices have dipped from their spring highs, inflation remains sticky, and investors are growing wary of slowing global growth. So, where does that leave copper miners like First Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM), which is now near 52-week highs? Is this a buying opportunity or a sign to steer clear?
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Up but still down
First Quantum’s share price may be near 52-week highs. Yet it’s still far from its 2023 prices by 35%, even after a modest rebound in recent months. The selloff was triggered by the closure of its Cobre Panamá mine late last year. This came after a court ruling deemed the mine contract unconstitutional. This mine accounted for roughly 40% of First Quantum’s earnings, so the impact was enormous. Management has been looking to challenge the ruling and work with the Panamanian government. However, there’s been little progress as of July 2025. That uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on the copper stock.
The copper stock’s most recent earnings didn’t do much to change the narrative. In the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, First Quantum reported revenue of $1.19 billion, down from $1.26 billion the quarter before but up year over year. Net profit increased to $331 million compared to a $156 million loss in Q1 2024, but again down from the last quarter. While copper prices held up reasonably well, production from mines and rising costs from other mines, such as Kansanshi and Sentinel, squeezed margins.
Still, there are reasons not to throw in the towel just yet. For one, First Quantum has been aggressively reducing capital spending, cutting jobs, and focusing on operational efficiencies. That’s helped stabilize things at a time when many other miners are also being cautious. The company still produced over 99,703 tonnes of copper last quarter, and its African assets continue to deliver solid results. Its debt load remains high at $5.79 billion from its Kanshanshi S3 project, but it has liquidity and recently extended some of its credit facilities to give it breathing room.
Looking ahead
The long-term bull case for First Quantum hinges on copper itself. With demand expected to soar due to electrification, renewables, and EVs, copper is widely seen as a must-have metal over the next decade. First Quantum remains one of the few large-scale producers positioned to take advantage of that trend, assuming it can sort out its regulatory and cost issues. The copper stock has said it will ramp up production at Kansanshi and work to bring other smaller projects online to help offset the loss from Panama. But those moves will take time.
So, is First Quantum a buy, sell, or hold in July 2025? If you already own the stock, holding may be the most sensible move. Much of the downside has already played out, and selling now could mean locking in steep losses without giving the company time to recover. There’s a decent chance that clarity around the Panama situation eventually improves sentiment, though that could still be months or even years away. The company remains a key player in the copper space, but patience will be required.
If you’re thinking of buying, tread carefully. While the stock looks cheap on a fundamental basis, the risk profile remains high. It could be a good speculative bet for those bullish on copper and willing to stomach more volatility. But it’s not a classic value play, more like a turnaround situation with a few moving parts that could go either way. And if you’re looking for short-term gains or stability, this probably isn’t the stock for you right now.
Bottom line
First Quantum isn’t broken, but it is bruised. With its biggest asset offline, rising costs, and geopolitical overhang, it’s hard to call it a buy with confidence. But if you believe in copper’s long-term demand and can stomach some turbulence, holding, or even nibbling while the stock is down, might not be the worst idea. For now, it sits squarely in the “hold” column.
