Canadian Tire Corporation (TSX:CTC.A) has been one of the notable movers on the TSX in 2025. The stock delivered impressive gains in the first half of the year, fueled by steady financial performance and renewed consumer confidence. The rally gathered speed in May when the retailer released its first-quarter results, which showed a resilience that stood out in a retail environment still shadowed by economic uncertainty. As recession worries began to fade, consumer discretionary spending picked up – and Canadian Tire was ready to capture it.
Momentum was evident across its various banners, with more customers visiting its stores, strong demand for new product launches, and a thriving loyalty program all adding to the upbeat narrative.
Notably, Canadian Tire’s ongoing transformation has also bolstered investor confidence. Initiatives to modernize stores, enhance retail capabilities, expand loyalty program engagement, and streamline operations by shutting underperforming locations and divesting non-core assets have positioned it for sustainable growth. These strategic moves aim to fuel sales and strengthen the balance sheet by reducing debt.
But the run hit turbulence on August 7. The company’s second-quarter results showed that while sales growth continued, earnings slipped, and management adopted a more cautious near-term outlook. The hint of slower growth ahead rattled investors, triggering a sharp sell-off that sent the shares down about 13% since the last earnings report. Even so, Canadian Tire remains in positive territory for the year, up about 10.3% year-to-date.
Is Canadian Tire Stock a Buy?
Canadian Tire’s strong momentum in the second quarter signals a resilient business, but near-term growth could moderate. Comparable sales rose 5.6% year-over-year, outpacing the 4.7% gain in Q1, driven by a 6.4% jump at Canadian Tire Retail (CTR). Both higher store traffic and larger basket sizes contributed to the boost.
The retailer’s ongoing transformation is reshaping how it serves customers. Investments in store modernization, digital tools, and e-commerce enhancements are making transactions faster and more convenient. Features like expanded payment options, one-click checkout, and broader same-day delivery availability have helped e-commerce sales climb 8% year-to-date, with CTR up 12%, outstripping total sales growth. Same-day delivery orders have doubled this year, aided by better awareness across banners. Meanwhile, a regionalized supply chain and increased automation are boosting efficiency, expanding SKU capacity, and speeding up product handling.
Loyalty remains a strong growth engine. Engagement rose sharply in Q2, with penetration climbing to 54.8% on a rolling 12-month basis, up 114 basis points. The active registered member base is 6% higher than last year, and more customers are shopping across multiple banners. Non-member spending has also increased, providing fresh opportunities to expand the Triangle Rewards program.
Despite these positives, Canadian Tire’s near-term profitability faces headwinds. Q2 EPS fell 4%, as gains in retail performance were offset by investments tied to its True North transformation strategy. The company will also face tough year-over-year comparisons in Q3’s back-to-school season and Q4’s holiday period, both of which were strong last year.
In short, Canadian Tire’s strategic investments should drive long-term growth and competitiveness. However, in the short term, slowing momentum and profitability headwinds may cap the stock’s upside potential. For now, Canadian Tire stock isn’t a Buy as patience could be the more prudent stance.
