Suncor Energy (TSX:SU) is up more than 10% in 2025 despite challenging market conditions for oil producers. Investors seeking an oil stock to add to their self-directed Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) or Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) portfolios are wondering if SU stock is good to buy right now.
Suncor Energy share price
Suncor trades near $56.50 at the time of writing. Investors who bought the stock at the bottom of the April tariff plunge are already sitting on some nice gains. Those who had the courage to step in during the lows of the pandemic crash have been generously rewarded, as well, over the past five years.
Suncor put a new CEO in place in 2023 to get the business back on track after rising expenses and safety issues hindered the speed of the post-pandemic recovery. Over the past two years, the company has made good progress on the turnaround plan. Staff cuts and a focus on efficiency have reduced expenses. Safety has improved and Suncor is delivering production growth.
In fact, Suncor reported solid Q2 2025 results with record second-quarter oil production of 808,000 barrels per day (bbls/d). Suncor also owns refineries and retail operations. Refinery throughput hit a Q2 record of 442,000 bbls/d.
Suncor reduced its expected capital expenditures for the year by $400 million. This frees up more cash for share buybacks, dividends, or debt reduction.
Suncor’s net debt position at the end of Q2 was $7.7 billion compared to $9 billion at the end of Q2 2024. With net debt now below the $8 billion target, Suncor is returning 100% of excess cash to shareholders through stock repurchases.
Adjusted operating earnings in the quarter came in at $873 million compared to $1.6 billion last year. This reflects the drop in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil trades near US$63 per barrel at the time of writing, compared to $80 last summer.
Oil outlook
Analysts broadly expect oil prices to remain under pressure into 2026. OPEC plans to increase supply in an effort to regain some lost market share. At the same time, non-OPEC producers, including the U.S. and Canada, are producing at record levels. Demand in China remains weak as the country continues to struggle with the fallout of its troubled real estate market. In the U.S, tariffs could push up inflation and cause an economic downturn that would put added pressure on oil demand.
As such, investors shouldn’t expect to see much support for rising prices unless there is another geopolitical event that triggers a spike. These moves to the upside, however, tend to be short-lived and usually benefit nimble traders more than buy-and-hold investors.
Time to buy Suncor?
Near-term volatility is expected. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the stock fall back to $50 if oil dips below US$60 in the coming months. Energy bulls, however, might want to start nibbling on weakness. Suncor is much more efficient than it was in recent years, and the company would be a big beneficiary of any new pipeline capacity that could be on the way to get Canadian oil to international markets.
You need to be patient, but the current 4% dividend yield pays investors reasonably well while they wait for the next upturn in oil prices.
