After another late-summer surge, the TSX Index now finds itself up just shy of 18% year to date. With more than a quarter left in the year, there’s still room for the TSX Index to fly even higher, perhaps by the most in some number of years. Indeed, if the TSX Index really heats up ahead of Santa Claus rally season, the Canadian market may very well go parabolic if it hasn’t already.
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A fresh rate cut and impressive momentum behind the TSX
With another fresh Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut in the books and an economy that looks resilient even in the face of uninspiring economic figures, I think one of the biggest risks new investors face is not being invested at all, just because of how red-hot the stock market has been on both sides of the border. In any case, for now, the TSX Index is beating the S&P 500 by close to 6%. Led by strength in financials and materials, I do envision a scenario that sees the still-cheaper Canadian stock market topping the S&P in 2026.
Additionally, a tech correction of sorts, I think, would leave the TSX Index in better shape than the S&P and certainly the Nasdaq 100. In any case, don’t let AI bubble speculation scare you out of putting money into markets or waiting for a correction. Waiting for a correction could leave you sidelined from continued gains in a Canadian market that I think you could still describe as cheap and value-heavy.
So, where does the TSX Index go from here? It’s tough to say. But I think it’ll continue to have the edge over the S&P unless, of course, the financial and materials sectors experience an isolated correction. Personally, though, I find these two sectors to still be quite undervalued. And when you consider the lower weighting in tech, I see the TSX Index coming out on top, regardless of whether it’s the bull or bear who ends up in the driver’s seat next year.
Bank of Montreal called the TSX Index’s S&P-beating year
In any case, Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belski said the TSX Index would beat the S&P 500 this year. His bold call hit the mark in a big-time way. And while Belski hasn’t called another S&P-beating year for the TSX Index in 2026, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if the streak continues.
Of course, it’s going to be a closer race, especially if AI leads to strong earnings growth in the Magnificent Seven names. Remember that it’s those seven tech companies that have really pulled the S&P 500 higher in recent years. And if AI is ready to spark some sort of productivity boom, I see the seven as growth engines that are still very much buyable, even at today’s levels.
Expect a closer race from here
For now, 2026 is expected to be a more “balanced” year. Still, I think strength in gold will translate to even more power in the miners. As for the financials, I see room for multiple expansion, especially when you consider the modest valuations of the Big Six Canadian banks following their impressive past-year runs.
So, can the TSX Index keep topping the S&P going into year’s end and into 2026? It’ll become a closer race. But let’s just say it hinges on continued performance in financials, gold, energy, and materials. Personally, I think the gold miners and banks remain absurdly cheap, leaving room for continued outperformance. For instance, BMO stock, a 28% year-to-date gainer, is far from pricey, at least in my view, at 13.4 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E).
