Canadian investors who missed the big rally in the TSX this year are wondering which top dividend stocks are still attractive and good to buy for a self-directed Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) or Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) portfolio focused on income and long-term total returns.
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Canadian Natural Resources
Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) trades near $47 per share at the time of writing, compared to $55 at one point in 2024. The stock has staged a nice rebound off the lows of the April tariff rout, but could have more room to run in the next few years.
CNRL is a giant in the Canadian energy patch with a current market capitalization of nearly $100 billion. The company’s size and its solid balance sheet give management the financial clout to make large acquisitions that only a handful of companies are able to complete. For example, CNRL purchased Chevron’s Canadian assets last year for US$6.5 billion. Contributions from the assets, along with successful drilling activity on the vast land holdings, have helped CNRL deliver solid returns this year, despite challenging conditions in the energy market.
CNRL generated adjusted net earnings of $5.733 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to $5.437 billion in the same period last year. Natural gas and oil production both rose considerably, providing higher revenues and profits, even as margins shrank due to lower commodity prices.
CNRL has a diversified asset base across the hydrocarbon spectrum, with assets that include oil sands, offshore, oil, conventional light and heavy oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. The company is the sole or majority owner of most of its holdings. This gives management the flexibility to quickly move capital around the portfolio to take advantage of positive shifts in energy prices. CNRL is also very efficient. The company says its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) breakeven price is in the range of US$40 to US$45 per barrel. WTI trades near $59 per share at the time of writing, so CNRL remains very profitable and current prices and has significant profit upside when oil rebounds.
Risks
Analysts broadly expect the oil market to remain in a surplus position through next year. Demand growth is expected to be slow as China’s economy continues to struggle due to property market woes and ongoing tariffs imposed by the United States. Economic weakness in the U.S. next year could also occur if tariffs finally filter through to consumers as businesses are forced to raise prices. A jump in inflation, combined with a weaker jobs market, could push the American economy into a recession. The U.S. is a major consumer of oil. An economic slump would likely dampen oil demand.
On the geopolitical side, the risk premium that occurred in the price of oil last year has largely evaporated due to calmer conditions in the Middle East. If a peace deal emerges between Russia and Ukraine next year, oil prices could fall even further.
As such, investors in oil producers should brace for some potential volatility in the near term.
Upside
Recently completed transmission and export capacity in Canada is already helping CNRL move more product to international buyers. Planned pipeline expansion and additional export terminals will enable CNRL and its peers to expand production and drive higher revenue and cash flow in the coming years.
Dividends
CNRL raised its dividend in each of the past 25 years. Additional dividend increases should be on the way, supported by cash flow growth and the strong balance sheet. Investors who buy CNQ at the current price can get a dividend yield of 4.9%.
Time to buy CNQ stock?
Near-term headwinds are expected, but the long-run outlook should be positive, and CNRL pays a good dividend that should continue to grow. If you have some cash to put to work in a buy-and-hold dividend portfolio, this stock deserves to be on your radar.
