Buy Canadian: 1 TSX Stock Set to Outperform Global Markets in 2026

Some Canadian stocks could outperform global markets next year, it’s true. Many of the country’s strongest sectors are perfectly positioned for the themes driving 2026, such as rising demand for resources, massive infrastructure spending, and a potential rebound. Add in the fact that some top TSX stocks are still undervalued after years of lagging behind U.S. tech, and you get a setup where even modest improvements could lead to outsized gains. For investors, it’s a rare chance to see these steady, gritty Canadian names take centre stage. Yet above them all, I’d start watching Nutrien (TSX: NTR).

NTR

Nutrien is the world’s largest provider of crop inputs and agricultural services, created through the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp. It produces and distributes the three key fertilizer nutrients of potash, nitrogen, and phosphate, alongside operating one of the largest agricultural retail networks globally. This gives Nutrien a unique position in the food supply chain. It serves farmers in more than a dozen countries and offers everything from crop protection products to digital agronomy tools. And because global population growth and rising food demand require ever-higher crop yields, Nutrien benefits from a steady, long-term demand base that supports stable cash flow.

The dividend stock is also highly vertical, controlling both production and retail. This creates strong efficiencies and cushions earnings when fertilizer prices fluctuate. Nutrien’s integrated model allows it to capture margin across the entire value chain, making it more resilient than pure commodity producers. Fertilizer markets should tighten over the coming decade due to supply constraints and geopolitical issues. Therefore, Nutrien’s global scale, resource access, and logistical footprint position it as a central player in the push to increase global food production sustainably.

Into earnings

In its most recent earnings results, Nutrien reported strong performance driven by higher fertilizer volumes and improved pricing across key nutrient segments. The dividend stock generated approximately US$1.7 billion in net earnings and US$4.8 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the first nine months of 2025. This reflects firm global demand and operational efficiencies. Potash sales were a standout, benefiting from increased output and cost advantages. The nitrogen segment also contributed meaningfully, supported by strong global energy dynamics that improved margin competitiveness compared to international producers.

Nutrien’s retail division continued to deliver stable results, with margin expansion driven by improved input costs and higher demand for proprietary crop solutions. Management also highlighted strong cash generation, enabling the company to return roughly US$1.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in the third quarter. The dividend stock reaffirmed its focus on capital discipline, ongoing network optimization, and cost control, factors that strengthen its outlook heading into 2026.

Looking ahead

Nutrien is now set up to outperform global markets next year. It sits at the centre of one of the most durable megatrends in the world: the rising need for food production. With geopolitical instability disrupting fertilizer supply chains, extreme weather affecting crops, and global populations continuing to rise, farmers must increasingly rely on high-quality, consistent fertilizer inputs to boost yields. Nutrien’s unmatched production scale, particularly in potash, gives it pricing power when markets tighten. If fertilizer prices continue to stabilize or move higher, Nutrien’s earnings leverage can translate into meaningful upside for shareholders.

The dividend stock should also outperform as its integrated model allows it to capture growth not just from fertilizer pricing but from expansion in retail services, digital agriculture, and value-added crop solutions. This creates multiple pathways for earnings growth. Growth independent of commodity cycles, something most global peers cannot match.

Bottom line

With strong cash flow, a shareholder-friendly capital return strategy, and a valuation that remains attractive relative to long-term earnings potential, Nutrien offers a strong combination of stability and upside. Yet even now, investors can grab it trading at 16 times earnings, with a 3.7% yield. Here’s what $7,000 could bring in right now.

If global markets face volatility while agricultural demand remains firm, NTR could easily become one of the TSX’s top performers in 2026.