With 54% gains so far in 2025, Shopify (TSX:SHOP) seems to be on track to end the third consecutive year deep in green territory. That performance also reflects how much its business has evolved. Shopify is no longer just a tool for small online sellers. It now supports global brands, physical retail, and emerging artificial intelligence (AI) commerce channels at a massive scale.
The company’s strong execution during key shopping periods has helped it regain investors’ confidence. But as momentum picks up, it becomes important to distinguish between true long-term growth drivers and short-term hype. In this article, I’ll explore Shopify stock’s 2026 outlook with key fundamentals and outline what could define its journey in the coming years.
Shopify stock
As a unified commerce platform provider, Shopify allows global merchants to sell online, in physical stores, and across multiple digital channels using one back office. Currently, it operates in more than 175 countries and supports businesses ranging from first-time sellers to global brands.
At the time of writing, SHOP stock was trading at $223.02 per share, giving it a market cap of about $290.2 billion. Interestingly, the recent rally in Shopify shares is mainly supported by its consistent financial growth and improving cash generation.
Another major catalyst for Shopify has been its record-setting Black Friday Cyber Monday period, when merchants generated US$14.6 billion in sales, up 27% from last year. Strong merchant activity across the company’s online and offline channels signalled confidence that Shopify is now a long-term player in everyday commerce.
Financial growth tells a clearer story
To understand where Shopify stock could be headed in 2026, let’s take a closer look at its recent numbers, which will help us separate momentum from meaningful growth.
In the third quarter of 2025, Shopify reported a solid 32% YoY (year-over-year) increase in its total revenue to US$2.8 billion. This growth was driven by higher merchant solutions revenue as more sellers used Shopify Payments, shipping, and other value-added services.
On the profitability side, the Canadian e-commerce giant’s adjusted quarterly EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) reached US$470 million in the quarter, up nearly 16% YoY, even though margins dipped slightly due to continued investments.
More importantly, its free cash flow came in at US$507 million last quarter, translating into an 18% margin and marking nine straight quarters of double-digit free cash flow margins. Encouraged by these results, Shopify also guided for mid-to-high twenties revenue growth in the fourth quarter, showing confidence heading into 2026.
Why Shopify investors may want to watch 2026 closely
Recently, Shopify’s Winter 26 Edition introduced more than 150 updates, with a clear emphasis on AI-driven tools such as Sidekick, agentic storefronts, smarter inventory workflows, and launch testing through SimGym and Rollouts. These initiatives aim to help merchants grow faster while reducing complexity, which can strengthen retention and increase revenue per merchant over time.
Beyond initiatives, Shopify enters 2026 with a clear path to stronger growth with a strong balance sheet and consistent cash generation. And if its execution continues at this pace, I wouldn’t be surprised if Shopify stock not only sustains its rally but breaks into new highs in 2026.
