The investment landscape in the second quarter of 2026 could be significantly more volatile than in the first quarter as a lasting peace remains elusive. With the weekend’s ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran having collapsed, hostilities could resume at any moment. The S&P/TSX Composite Index and other global benchmarks will remain under extreme pressure, driven by regional instability.
Meanwhile, two Canadian stocks appear fundamentally poised to weather the ongoing geopolitical shocks. Imperial Oil (TSX: IMO) and Barrick Mining (TSX: ABX), both from the top-performing energy and basic materials sectors, could even surge in 2026.
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Solid moat
Imperial Oil directly benefits from rising oil prices and the looming oil crisis due to the Middle East conflict. The $86.5 billion integrated company has a distinct structural advantage when crude volatility is high. Its operations cover the entire value chain, from oil sands extraction to refining and marketing. There’s a built-in buffer against price volatility.
Performance-wise, IMO is up nearly 38% year-to-date. At $178.93 per share, the large-cap energy stock pays a modest but safe 1.9% dividend (44.4% payout ratio). Regarding dividend longevity, the payment track record is more than 100 years. Moreover, the company has increased its annual dividend for 31 consecutive years. The most recent increase was 20%.
Imperial Oil is not only a major crude oil producer but is also Canada’s largest petroleum refiner. Its Chairman, President and CEO, John Whelan, said, “Looking ahead, we are confident in our plans to profitably grow volumes, lower unit cash costs, and progress our restructuring, while maintaining our focus on safety and operational excellence.”
Safe haven
Barrick Mining has held steady, as evidenced by the 129.5% over the last 12 months. The $101 billion global mining company is a geopolitical safe haven, operating high-quality, long-life assets in prolific districts. Gold is likewise the ultimate hedge against economic uncertainty. At $60.27 per share, ABX pays an attractive 3.8% dividend.
Its President and CEO, Mark Hill, was extremely elated with Barrick’s outstanding finish to 2025. In the fourth quarter, the gold and copper production guidance was achieved, cash flow hit a quarterly record, and the year’s operating plan was successfully executed.
For the full year 2025, revenue and free cash flow (FCF) rose 31% and 194% year-over-year to US$17 billion and US$3.9 billion, respectively. Net earnings climbed 133% to US$5 billion compared to 2024. Gold prices surged during the latter part of the year. Copper exposure is advantageous because it is a critical mineral for the buildout of artificial intelligence and green energy infrastructure.
Barrick plans to spin off its North American assets into a new, separate entity called NewCo. The IPO for the focused, pure-play gold entity is tentatively set for late 2026. Reducing exposure to higher-risk jurisdictions and prioritizing investment in tier-one assets is part of the portfolio reshaping.
“We are well-positioned to carry our current momentum forward and continue unlocking value from our premier asset portfolio in 2026,” Hill added.
Crisis-ready
Imperial Oil and Barrick Gold are crisis-ready stocks, offering stability in a war-weary environment. The size and scale of the respective businesses will enable both stocks to withstand downward pressure.
