Shares of Restaurant Brands International (TSX: QSR) have already started to soar in 2026, with shares already up just shy of 12% so far this year. But the big question is whether the strength can continue in the second half after a bit of volatility to end the spring season. At the time of this writing, shares of Restaurant Brands are down just over 6% after partially recovering from a swift 11% correction. Indeed, the May dip seems, more or less, like a golden opportunity to be a buyer rather than a sign that it’s time to book profits and head to higher-momentum trades out there.
Restaurant Brands International has been executing very well, with strength at Burger King and Tim Hortons that has been most notable in recent quarters. Whether we’re talking about the reclaiming of the flame at Burger King or the nice, steady positive comps win streak over at Tim Hortons, it’s clear that management now knows how to steer the ship in a climate that’s grown harder to navigate for other rivals in the fast-food market.
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What it takes to win the value wars
It’s too late to crown Restaurant Brands as the king of value or the winner of the value wars, though, especially as inflation continues to nibble away at the wallets of everyday consumers. The big question, in my view, is whether fancy dine-in restaurants will really start to lose share to the fast-food or fast-casual chains. As always, time will tell, but as the K-shaped economy worsens, I do think that Restaurant Brands is perfectly positioned to capture the bottom side of the “K” shape.
And, of course, everybody has the appetite for great value, especially if the quality side (as opposed to price) is there. The Whopper’s makeover, in my humble opinion, seems to have made Burger King a force again, and not only with the value-seeking crowd.
Going into the second half, I think Restaurant Brands has no shortage of growth levers that it can pull. As the firm stays competitive on value, not by reducing portion sizes to trim prices, but in delivering good bang for every buck, I think Restaurant Brands can keep grabbing share, especially as its value proposition can stay as competitive with grocery stores. Indeed, the company doesn’t need to lower prices to the floor; it just needs to maximize value by maintaining a level of quality at an affordable price in this inflationary climate, where just about everything is going up in price.
Restaurant Brands stock looks cheap and primed
As for catalysts to look forward to in H2 2026, I think the Tim Hortons expansion could pay big dividends, all while management looks to simplify things at Popeye’s Louisiana Kitchen. In any case, Burger King’s success with the Whopper, I believe, is a sign that management knows how to turn the heat up. And in the second half, I do think it will replicate its “wins” across its broad basket of brands.
For now, I think the bar is low, with a 23.6 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple on a 3.5% dividend yield that’s well-positioned to keep growing. Personally, I don’t think the valuation makes sense, especially compared to the peer group, given it’s posting wonderful quarters in a climate that’s not been kind to all fast-food firms. Why settle for a lower yield with a rival that’s not quite operating at the high level that QSR is? In my view, QSR stock is a hidden gem of a dividend grower hiding in plain sight.
