Betting your future on one company sounds reckless. Betting on roughly 94,000 kilometres of natural gas pipelines supplying power plants, homes, industry, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals sounds considerably less so.
That infrastructure belongs to TC Energy (TSX: TRP).
The company moves more than 30% of the natural gas consumed across North America. Better still, approximately 98% of comparable earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) comes from regulated assets or long-term take-or-pay contracts.
Customers pay for access whether they use every bit of contracted capacity or not. That’s the sort of predictability I’d happily build around for decades.
Source: Getty Images
More gas
Natural gas demand isn’t disappearing from TC Energy’s growth story. It’s getting bigger. The company expects North American natural gas demand to increase by roughly 51 billion cubic feet per day between 2025 and 2035, driven primarily by LNG exports, industrial growth, and gas-fired electricity.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is adding another customer. TC Energy recently approved its Central Virginia Capacity project, which will provide up to 0.4 billion cubic feet per day to new gas-fired power generation supporting data-centre development. Combined with another U.S. expansion, the projects represent roughly US$400 million of investment backed by 20-year take-or-pay contracts.
That’s exactly how I’d want TC Energy participating in the AI boom. Let somebody else worry about building the chatbot. Collect money moving the fuel keeping the servers awake.
TRP
The existing business is already growing. Second-quarter comparable EBITDA rose 12% year over year to $2.9 billion, while comparable earnings per share (EPS) climbed to $0.94 from $0.82. TC Energy now expects 2026 comparable EBITDA to land near the upper end of its $11.6 billion to $11.8 billion range.
There’s plenty more coming. The company has a $22 billion secured capital program through 2031. It has already sanctioned roughly $3 billion of new natural gas projects during 2026.
Management is also pruning the portfolio. This week, TC Energy agreed to sell its Guadalajara-Manzanillo Pipeline for about $560 million, with proceeds intended for higher-return North American growth opportunities.
Getting paid
TC Energy has increased its dividend for 26 consecutive years. The current quarterly payout is $0.88 per share, or $3.51 annually. At $84.19, that’s a yield of roughly 4.2%. Here’s what $10,000 could currently produce.
| COMPANY | RECENT PRICE | NUMBER OF SHARES | ANNUAL DIVIDEND | ANNUAL TOTAL PAYOUT | FREQUENCY | TOTAL INVESTMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRP | $84.19 | 118 | $3.51 | $414.18 | Quarterly | $9,934.42 |
Management expects future dividend growth of 3% to 5% annually. Reinvest those payments among diversified Canadian dividend stocks, and today’s $414 could become considerably more useful over time.
Considerations
TC Energy still carries substantial debt, while its enormous capital program requires disciplined execution. Project delays, regulatory decisions, higher financing costs, or weaker future natural gas demand could pressure returns.
The valuation isn’t particularly cheap either. At roughly 22.5 times forward earnings, investors are paying for that predictable cash flow. That’s why even a conviction holding should sit among diversified Canadian blue-chip stocks, rather than becoming an entire retirement portfolio.
Bottom line
If I’m betting decades of my investing future on a dividend stock, I don’t need excitement. I need cash flow that keeps showing up. TC Energy has 26 years of dividend growth, billions in contracted projects, and new demand arriving from LNG, electricity, and data centres.
I’ll happily let somebody else chase the next big thing. TC Energy can keep getting paid to move the energy powering it.
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