Forget the Noise: Why Cascades Packaging Could Outlast the Trade War

Cascades stock has rallied 73% over the last year, and improving profitability, lower debt, and tariff-mitigation efforts could help keep its recovery on track despite the escalating Canada-U.S. trade war.

Key Points
  • Cascades shares have impressed investors by surging 73% over the last year.
  • Its second-quarter operating income jumped about 61%, while adjusted earnings per share climbed about 26%.
  • The company believes the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on certain tissue and packaging exports is manageable as it pursues mitigation measures and selling price increases.

Amid escalating Canada-U.S. trade tensions, it’s easy to assume that every Canadian stock exposed to the American market is heading for trouble. However, companies like Cascades (TSX: CAS) give me a reason to look beyond that assumption. This packaging firm isn’t immune to the risks of higher U.S. tariffs, but it enters the trade war with several advantages that could soften the blow.

Interestingly, Cascades has spent recent quarters improving profitability, reducing debt, streamlining its portfolio, and pushing through higher selling prices. Those changes give it more flexibility to deal with an external shock without destroying its long-term fundamentals and growth outlook.

Let’s find out why Cascades’ stronger operating position and tariff-mitigation efforts could help this TSX-listed packaging stock outlast the trade war.

Warning sign with the text "Trade war" in front of container ship

Source: Getty Images

Why Cascades deserves a closer look

Simply put, this Kingsey Falls-headquartered firm provides packaging, tissue, hygiene, and recovery solutions across North America. Its packaging products serve several markets, including food, retail, protection, and e-commerce.

Cascades stock currently trades at $17.09 per share with a market cap of roughly $1.7 billion. It also offers an annualized dividend yield of 2.8%, paid quarterly. Over the last year, Cascades has impressed investors by delivering a solid 73% return. That rally has been fueled by its improving operating results and a stronger financial position.

Profitability is moving in the right direction

In the second quarter, Cascades generated $1.2 billion in sales, up about 3% year-over-year (YoY). Higher average selling prices added $13 million to its sales, while a favourable sales mix contributed another $21 million.

More importantly, the packaging company’s operating income jumped about 61% YoY to $58 million. As a result, its adjusted earnings for the quarter climbed about 26% to $0.24 per share. Higher volumes, stronger prices, and cost-reduction efforts also supported Cascades’ adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) growth. However, higher raw material and transportation costs stole some of those gains.

Meanwhile, its packaging products business remained the biggest contributor as the segment’s sales rose about 1% YoY to $772 million.

Why the tariff hit may be manageable

Interestingly, recent improvements across Cascades’ operations could leave the company better positioned to weather the trade war. Although some of its tissue and packaging products exported to the U.S. could face the announced 50% tariffs, the company believes the potential impact is manageable as it pursues tactical initiatives that could materially reduce the financial impact over the coming months.

At the same time, the Canadian firm is implementing previously announced selling price increases across packaging and tissue businesses. In packaging, a $50-per-ton price increase announced in June is expected to strengthen its earnings momentum in the coming quarters.

Another key factor that makes Cascades stock look even more appealing is its improving balance sheet. Last quarter, the company’s net debt fell nearly 11% YoY to $1.9 billion, while its net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 3.3 times from 3.8 times a year ago.

Excluding the potential impact of the announced tariffs, Cascades expects its annual run-rate adjusted EBITDA to exceed $600 million during the second half of 2026. With price increases underway, operating efficiency improving, and debt moving lower, Cascades seems well prepared to handle trade turbulence even as the trade war noise hurts investor sentiment.

For investors comfortable with some market volatility due to near-term trade uncertainty, Cascades’ improving resilience and profitability make this TSX packaging stock attractive to consider right now.

Fool contributor Jitendra Parashar has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

More on Dividend Stocks

senior man and woman stretch their legs on yoga mats outside
Dividend Stocks

Best Monthly Dividend Stocks on the TSX? My Top Picks for Today

Looking for monthly dividend income and an attractive growth profile? These two TSX stocks are my top picks today.

Read more »

oil pumps at sunset
Dividend Stocks

Canadian Natural Resources vs. Suncor: The Dividend Stock to Own Through 2026

Let’s compare Canadian Natural Resources and Suncor Energy across their financial performance, dividend track records, growth prospects, and valuations to…

Read more »

man studies at computer
Dividend Stocks

Here Are The 3 Canadian Stocks I’d Tell a New Investor to Buy ASAP

Discover strategies for investing in stocks that can help you thrive in a market filled with volatility and uncertainty.

Read more »

telecom towers concept for wireless technology
Dividend Stocks

BCE Stock Is Down 2% After Q3: Is the 5.8% Dividend Safe?

BCE stock slipped 2% after Q3 earnings. See whether the 5.8% dividend is safe, how free cash flow covers it,…

Read more »

TFSA (Tax-Free Savings Account) on wooden blocks and Canadian one hundred dollar bills.
Dividend Stocks

Too Busy to Invest? This Dividend Stock Deserves a Permanent Place In Your TFSA

This Canadian stock appears well-positioned to keep paying and growing its dividend and deliver solid capital gains in the long…

Read more »

monthly calendar with clock
Dividend Stocks

The TFSA Strategy I’d Use to Generate $600 in Monthly Tax-Free Income

A smarter TFSA approach is to prioritize sustainable total returns and diversification rather than chasing an arbitrary monthly income number.

Read more »

Concept of rent, search, purchase real estate, REIT
Dividend Stocks

How Much to Invest in Killam Apartment for $250 a Month in Dividends

Want $250 a month? Killam Apartment pays $0.06 a unit at $17.45. See how many units to buy, what Q3…

Read more »

resting in a hammock with eyes closed
Dividend Stocks

3 Top Canadian Dividend Stocks for $2,050 in Passive Income Each Year

With resilient business models, consistent dividend payouts, and clear growth prospects, these three dividend stocks are ideal for income-seeking investors.

Read more »