This Scary Stock Market Indicator Looks Just Like 1929

With stocks like Shopify Inc (TSX:SHOP)(NYSE:SHOP) trading at stratospheric valuations, one indicator is signaling a massive crash.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s premium investing services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

These days, many people think the stock market is getting overheated. With earnings down and stocks up, we’ve got the S&P 500 trading at a historically high valuation. At more than 30 times earnings, it’s more than twice as expensive as it usually is.

In fact, there are plenty of indicators suggesting that the stock market is overdue for the crash. The “Buffett indicator,” for example, currently sits at 181–far higher than normal. That alone is cause for concern.

But there’s one indicator that has even more dire implications. This indicator isn’t talked about as much as the Buffett indicator, but it deserves just as much attention. This indicator actually suggests that stocks are approaching 1929-tier levels of overvaluation. And it could get even worse.

So what is this ratio, and why is it such an ominous sign for stocks?

The CAPE ratio

The “CAPE ratio” is price to 10-year average earnings. It’s similar to the market P/E ratio but it uses a 10-year average instead of a trailing 12 month total. This ratio is useful because it looks at earnings over a long period, rather than the most recent period.

According to Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank, the CAPE ratio is currently higher than it was on the eve of the 1929 stock market crash. In fact, it’s higher than it’s been at any other time than right before the 2001 dot-com crash. Using this indicator as a sign of stock market valuation, we’re overdue for a correction. However, there’s one thing we have to address before jumping to any conclusions.

Earnings artificially suppressed by COVID-19 lockdowns

One thing you need to keep in mind when looking at the current CAPE ratio is the fact that 10 year earnings have been artificially suppressed by the recent COVID-19 lockdowns. Apart from tech, most major companies saw their earnings decline this year. The damage was most pronounced among airlines, hotels and movie theatres.

When a company sees its earnings decline by 50% in one year, that’s going to noticeably lower its 10-year average. So, assuming there’s a rapid vaccine rollout in the coming year, then 2020’s earnings decline may prove to have not been indicative of long-term trends, which would make the CAPE ratio less applicable to the current market.

Tech stocks to blame?

One possible reason why the CAPE ratio is so high right now is because of the inflated valuations being given to tech stocks.

If you look at a stock like Shopify Inc (TSX:SHOP)(NYSE:SHOP), its price has gotten extremely high relative to its fundamentals. Trading at 53 times sales and 666 times earnings, it’s one of the most expensive Canadian stocks out there.

Sure, Shopify is growing revenue at 96% year over year. But it’s not clear that that will continue after the COVID-19 related retail closures subside. If it doesn’t continue, then today’s prices will be impossible to justify.

Shopify is not alone in that regard, however. Most of the “FAANG” stocks are currently trading at historically high valuations, and there are no sign of this trend slowing down.

With these stocks making up a larger and larger share of major market indices, they’re enough to drive the total market valuation up. That may help to explain why the CAPE ratio has gotten so high in recent months.

Should you invest $1,000 in Dream Industrial REIT right now?

Before you buy stock in Dream Industrial REIT, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor Canada analyst team just identified what they believe are the Top Stocks for 2025 and Beyond for investors to buy now… and Dream Industrial REIT wasn’t one of them. The Top Stocks that made the cut could potentially produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider MercadoLibre, which we first recommended on January 8, 2014 ... if you invested $1,000 in the “eBay of Latin America” at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $20,697.16!*

Stock Advisor Canada provides investors with an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including guidance on building a portfolio, regular updates from analysts, and two new stock picks each month – one from Canada and one from the U.S. The Stock Advisor Canada service has outperformed the return of S&P/TSX Composite Index by 29 percentage points since 2013*.

See the Top Stocks * Returns as of 3/20/25

This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium service or advisor. We’re Motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer, so we sometimes publish articles that may not be in line with recommendations, rankings or other content.

Fool contributor Andrew Button has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Tom Gardner owns shares of Shopify. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Shopify and Shopify.

Confidently Navigate Market Volatility: Claim Your Free Report!

Feeling uneasy about the ups and downs of the stock market lately? You’re not alone. At The Motley Fool Canada, we get it — and we’re here to help. We’ve crafted an essential guide designed to help you through these uncertain times: "5-Step Checklist: How to Prepare Your Portfolio for Volatility."

Don't miss out on this opportunity for peace of mind. Just click below to learn how to receive your complimentary report today!

Get Our Free Report Today

More on Tech Stocks

The letters AI glowing on a circuit board processor.
Tech Stocks

How I’d Allocate $10,000 to AI Stocks in Today’s Market

Shopify (TSX:SHOP) is one of Canada's most compelling AI stocks.

Read more »

Canada day banner background design of flag
Tech Stocks

The Top Canadian Stock to Buy With $5,000 in 2025

There are few Canadian stocks out there that offer the outlook of this tech stock, bound for more growth.

Read more »

ways to boost income
Tech Stocks

How I’d Invest $11,500 in Canadian Fintech Stocks to Revolutionize My Finances

Propel Holdings stock's recent dip could be a trading opportunity for long-term financial gains. Here's why the fintech stock is…

Read more »

Start line on the highway
Tech Stocks

Where I’d Invest $5,000 in Growth Stocks With Long-Term Potential Through 2030

DO you have $5,000 to invest to grow your wealth over the long term? These growth stocks could deliver strong…

Read more »

A shopper makes purchases from an online store.
Tech Stocks

Buy the Dip on the Return of Recession Stocks?

If a recession comes back, there are some stocks that could fair well afterwards. And this is one of the…

Read more »

data center server racks glow with light
Tech Stocks

April Opportunity: Where I’d Invest $7,000 in These 3 Tech Stocks Right Now

These tech stocks have solid growth potential and are trading at discounted valuation, providing a solid buying opportunity in April.

Read more »

The letters AI glowing on a circuit board processor.
Tech Stocks

If I Could Only Buy and Hold a Single U.S. Stock, This Would Be It

You don’t need 40 different stocks to build wealth. A few good ones can boost your portfolio, and this U.S.…

Read more »

cloud computing
Tech Stocks

2 Top Canadian Information Technology Stocks to Buy Right Now

These two Canadian information technology stocks are bargains amid the downturn in the broader market for long-term investors.

Read more »