The Canadian energy sector is certainly hard to handicap right now. With Canadian exports to the U.S. now in the crosshairs of President-elect Donald Trump, some companies, such as Suncor Energy (TSX:SU), are seeing significant selling pressure, as the chart below shows.
However, I think there could be a counter-argument to this recent selling and a bullish thesis around Suncor that’s worth exploring. Here’s why I think Suncor could be in for a great year of growth in 2025.
Energy stocks could be surprising winners
One of the downsides of a new Trump administration is the higher interest rates, as the Federal Reserve looks set to tamp down on increasing inflation expectations by keeping interest rates higher for longer. For investors, that may not be a great thing, as these higher interest rates should result in higher discount rates and lower valuations over time. Additionally, a rising U.S. dollar should continue to result in capital flows into the U.S., where there’s less currency-related risk.
But if inflation expectations do pick up, Canadian energy producers such as Suncor could benefit. The fact that the company is selling its Canadian oil to U.S. companies and receiving U.S. dollars for said oil could position the company much better than many of its domestic peers.
This currency exchange and the commodity-related upside are often overlooked by the market in times of turmoil. And while it’s certainly possible that Canada could slip into a recession or other major geopolitical issues could arise that would dent demand, if the soft-landing narrative remains in place, we’re going to need a lot more energy over time. And despite tariff talk, it’s clear that Trump wants to see lower prices at the pump, so investors have reason to believe that oil producers could (and likely should) be spared from any future tariff wars that may or may not heat up.
Key growth drivers worth watching
Aside from the company’s overall bullish backdrop (at least, I’d argue that), there are some other key growth drivers that may be worth paying attention to.
For one, the company’s very low-cost extraction processes for its operations in Canada’s oil sands are really second to none. This operating model is what has allowed Suncor to turn a profit when oil prices were much lower than they are today. And if we do see an inflationary surge in prices, that would only benefit this energy exporter to an outsized degree.
Ultimately, I think oil prices will stabilize and provide relatively consistent growth for Suncor over the next four years. Yes, there may be bumps along the way. But overall, the company’s revenue and earnings growth profile should stay intact so long as no major bombshells are dropped on the company from here.
Bottom line
Overall, I think Suncor is perhaps one of the best North American energy plays right now, and the market is overlooking or undervaluing it to a significant degree. This is a company that remains a cash flow machine in a crucial industry when it comes to various geopolitical drivers (North American energy independence for example).
Thus, I think the narrative around this company could shift once Trump shifts his tone on Canadian tariffs, particularly for the oil and gas industry. Investors may want to get ahead of the curve — I don’t think this is a falling knife, not yet, at least.
