Quebecor (TSX:QBR.B) presents an interesting opportunity for investors in 2025, with a mix of strengths and challenges that require careful evaluation. The company has performed admirably in the telecommunications and media sectors. Yet its high debt levels and the broader economic environment introduce some complexities for investors to consider. So, let’s dig into whether this stock is a buy, sell, or hold this year.
The numbers
Quebecor stock’s 2024 financial performance was strong, largely driven by its acquisition of Freedom Mobile, which significantly bolstered its telecommunications segment. The company reported total revenues of $5.43 billion for 2023, a robust 19.9% year-over-year increase. This growth was accompanied by adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $2.24 billion, marking a 15.7% improvement from the previous year.
Analyst sentiment towards Quebecor has been broadly positive. The consensus among eight analysts is a “moderate buy” rating, with an average 12-month price target of $38.31. This target suggests a potential upside of approximately 26.57% from current levels, indicating that many market observers see significant room for growth. These optimistic outlooks align with the company’s strategy of growth through acquisitions and service expansion.
Yet one of Quebecor’s most appealing features for income-focused investors is its dividend. Quebecor stock offers a forward annual dividend yield of 4.22%, supported by a payout ratio of 41.13%. This moderate payout ratio suggests that the company retains sufficient earnings to reinvest in its growth initiatives while still rewarding shareholders. Over the past five years, Quebecor’s average dividend yield has been 3.38%, indicating that the current yield is above historical norms and may reflect an attractive entry point for dividend investors.
What to watch
Despite these strengths, Quebecor’s high leverage is a notable concern. The company’s total debt currently stands at $7.94 billion, translating to a debt-to-equity ratio of 348.09%. While the company generates substantial cash flow at $1.66 billion in operating cash flow over the trailing 12 months, the high debt levels could present challenges. Investors should keep a close eye on Quebecor stock’s ability to manage and reduce this debt over time, as it will significantly impact the company’s financial flexibility and valuation.
Market conditions also warrant consideration. While Quebecor operates in relatively defensive industries like telecommunications and media, the broader economic environment could impact its performance. The company’s third-quarter 2024 results showed a slight year-over-year decline in revenue growth of 1.8% and a 9.7% drop in quarterly earnings growth. This may indicate some near-term challenges.
Yet Quebecor stock’s valuation metrics paint a picture of a reasonably priced stock. Its trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 9.93, and its forward P/E is slightly lower at 9.35, suggesting that the market anticipates earnings stability or modest growth. The enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio of 6.56 also suggests that the stock is attractively valued relative to its peers. Compared to other Canadian telecom players, Quebecor offers a compelling mix of growth potential and a lower valuation.
Looking ahead
The company’s strategic focus remains a key strength. Quebecor stock continues to emphasize market expansion and innovation in its telecommunications offerings. The Freedom Mobile acquisition has allowed it to challenge larger players, providing consumers with more competitive pricing and services. This aggressive growth strategy could yield significant long-term benefits, though it also comes with execution risks.
For investors, Quebecor stock’s risk-reward profile ultimately depends on their investment objectives and risk tolerance. Income-focused investors may find the 4.22% dividend yield highly appealing, especially given the company’s stable cash flow. Growth-oriented investors might view the stock as a buy, given its expansion potential and the favourable analyst outlook. However, conservative investors may prefer to wait for signs of debt reduction or improved earnings growth before committing more capital.
Bottom line
In conclusion, Quebecor could be a “buy” for investors who are comfortable with its debt levels and are seeking exposure to a strong, diversified Canadian telecom and media company with significant upside potential. For those with a lower risk tolerance, it may be prudent to adopt a “hold” stance, waiting for further clarity on debt management and sustained revenue growth. As always, potential investors should conduct their due diligence and consider consulting a financial advisor to ensure that Quebecor stock aligns with their broader portfolio strategy.
