It certainly doesn’t feel like Canada’s economy is headed for any sort of economic downturn, with the TSX Index making yet another new all-time high on Tuesday’s session, inching higher by just north of 0.3% on a day that saw the S&P 500 give back a similar percentage.
Indeed, various pundits may see more in the way of job losses and a potential recession on the horizon. Add the uncertainty of tariffs into the equation, and it certainly seems like a recession (or perhaps something a bit worse) is just waiting right around the corner. So, why is the TSX Index continuing to blast off as though we’re already in the early innings of the next big economic expansion and bull market?
While only time will tell if markets are being a tad overly optimistic, I do think that many of the Canadian value plays are simply better positioned to ride out a wobbly economy. Indeed, some chance of a recession already seems mostly priced in. And as investors rush from the high-risk growth trade and back into the value plays (many high yielders still out there), perhaps some of the cheaper TSX stocks, including those that will feel the heat of a recession, may not be in for as much pain as some of the overheated stocks trading south of the border.
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Canadian Tire: A discretionary retailer that’s on the ascent
In this piece, we’ll look at a cheap retail stock that I believe could be a heck of a lot more resilient in the face of economic turmoil than most would think. Enter Canadian Tire (TSX:CTC.A), a discretionary retailer whose shares are already seen to have much recession risk baked in at current multiples. At just shy of $170 per share, shares of the iconic retailer go for just 10.9 times trailing price-to-earnings (P/E).
With a bountiful 4.3% dividend yield, a very intriguing pick-up of Hudson’s Bay assets (which includes Stripes) in a deal worth just $30 million, and strategic plans to shift the supply chain around to source more Canadian goods, I do see Canadian Tire as less at risk from tariffs as management gets hard at work on various initiatives going on behind the scenes.
Whether we’re talking about working more with domestic suppliers, acquiring more Canadian brands (think Hudson’s Bay and Sherwood), or implementing a “True North” transformative growth strategy (all efforts I pounded the table on in prior pieces) that could boost efficiencies and operating margins over the long run, I wouldn’t yet throw in the towel on a name because a recession may be in the Canadian economy’s future.
More recession-resilient over time?
Of course, as a discretionary retailer, a downtick in consumer spending will weigh on sales. However, as Canadian Tire looks to beef up its private label (which better appeals to price-sensitive Canadian consumers), while beckoning consumers looking to “buy Canadian” amid Trump’s tariff war and continuing to jolt loyalty through its Triangle rewards program, I do think some of the economic pressures ahead can be mostly offset quite well should they appear at some point in the second half of 2025 or the first half of 2026.
In short, Canadian Tire is exceptionally well-managed, perhaps enough to hold its own if a recession dents the TSX Index in its tracks. As the firm continues improving its long-term growth narrative, count me as unsurprised if the stock makes its own new highs within the next 18 months.
