Barrick Mining (TSX:ABX) is among the largest gold mining companies in the world. The rally in gold prices over the last few years has resulted in the TSX stock returning 40% to shareholders since August 2022.
Let’s see if Barrick Mining remains a top investment right now.
How did Barrick Mining stock perform in Q1 2025?
Barrick Mining delivered solid first-quarter results across revenue, profit, and cash flow while advancing major growth projects, despite ongoing challenges at its Loulo-Gounkoto operations in Mali. CEO Mark Bristow emphasized the company’s strategic focus on building sustainable long-term value through Tier 1 assets and a growing copper portfolio.
Barrick completed key maintenance projects during the quarter, positioning operations for improved performance throughout the year. At Nevada Gold Mines, planned roaster maintenance at Carlin temporarily reduced production; however, the completion of major shutdowns sets the stage for a stronger performance in the second quarter and the second half of 2025. Management highlighted efficiency gains from the new Komatsu open pit fleet, driving mining unit costs back to 2022 levels.
A productive project portfolio
Barrick’s flagship growth project, Pueblo Viejo, made substantial progress following a 35-day shutdown of the plant for critical upgrades. These improvements, including enhancements to the flash recycle system and an overhaul of the thickener, are expected to unlock the operation’s long-term potential, with production targets exceeding 800,000 ounces annually once the ramp-up is complete.
Barrick officially moved its world-class Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan into the construction phase, appointing Fluor as the lead engineering partner. This US$10 billion project represents one of the largest undeveloped porphyry systems globally, with Barrick’s equity contribution estimated to be between US$1.4 billion and US$1.7 billion for Phase 1. The project secured environmental permits and financing commitments from the Asian Development Bank and International Finance Corporation.
Strategic portfolio rationalization continued with the announced US$1 billion sale of Donlin, reflecting management’s focus on Tier 1 assets. The company also launched a process to test the market for Hemlo, emphasizing its commitment to maintaining only assets that meet stringent quality criteria. Proceeds will support the disciplined balance sheet approach and potential shareholder returns through buybacks and special dividends.
However, operations in Mali remain suspended amid ongoing negotiations with the transitional government over tax and regulatory frameworks. While this impacts near-term production, management expressed confidence in reaching a constructive resolution given the mine’s importance to the local economy.
Is ABX stock undervalued?
Morningstar analysts remain bullish on the TSX stock and have estimated that Barrick trades 15% below its intrinsic value. The discount likely reflects uncertainty over Mali operations and investor concerns about Barrick’s position on the cost curve.
However, analysts view current weakness as a buying opportunity, citing the company’s strong portfolio positioning, mainframe cycle momentum in Nevada, and accelerating AI adoption among enterprise clients seeking productivity improvements.
Wall Street estimates that Barrick Mining will expand adjusted earnings per share from US$1.26 in 2024 to US$3.52 in 2028, indicating an annual growth rate of nearly 30%. Today, ABX stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of nine times, below its 10-year average of 19 times.
If ABX stock is priced at 12 times forward earnings, it should trade around US$42 in early 2028, indicating an upside potential of 100% from current levels.
