If you’ve been watching copper sit near US$6 per pound and wondering which stocks have the most to gain if the commodity keeps rising, the answer comes down to three things: production ramp, cost structure, and how much political or operational risk you are willing to take.
Copper climbed hard from its weaker patch, then swung around on supply hiccoughs, China headlines, and a fresh wave of electrification optimism. Lately, the price has hovered near multi-year highs with a significant year-over-year gain. If copper keeps pushing higher, these Canadian miners could see growing output and improving costs that can move fast.
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CS
Capstone Copper (TSX: CS) looks built for a copper rebound. It runs a portfolio of mines in the Americas, and the big story over the last year centred on higher sulphide production as it ramped up at Mantoverde and pushed improvements at Mantos Blancos. It also delivered updates around labour negotiations at Mantoverde, then rolled into fresh guidance that points to another step-up ahead — including a targeted ramp that aims to exit 2026 at design throughput levels for Mantoverde’s concentrator.
In Q3 2025, Capstone posted record adjusted EBITDA of $249.2 million, up sharply from $120.8 million a year earlier, and generated operating cash flow before working capital changes of $231.2 million. Higher production and lower unit costs give it meaningful torque when copper prices rise. It trades at 25 times earnings.
Capstone is the execution story of the three opportunities presented here— a visible production ramp at Mantoverde, record EBITDA already doubling year over year, and a 2026 exit target that could reset the earnings base materially higher if copper holds.
HBM
Hudbay Minerals (TSX: HBM) looks interesting in a copper rebound as it mixes copper with meaningful gold by-product credits, and that blend can soften the ride when copper wobbles. It operates across Peru, Manitoba, and British Columbia, and carries a longer-dated growth narrative through its Copper World project in Arizona. Over the last year, its news flow carried real-world grit — mandatory wildfire evacuations in Manitoba and disruptions tied to social unrest in Peru — and it still hit its consolidated copper and gold production guidance.
For 2025, Hudbay delivered record annual revenue of $2.21 billion and record adjusted EBITDA of $1.06 billion, plus record annual free cash flow of $387.9 million. It produced 118,188 tonnes of copper and 267,934 ounces of gold, with a consolidated cash cost net of by-product credits of negative $0.22 per pound of copper and sustaining cash cost of $1.30 per pound. It trades at 19 times earnings.
Hudbay is our cash-flow story — record free cash flow of $388 million, negative net cash costs on copper, and a gold by-product credit that keeps the business profitable even when copper pulls back. Of the three, it is the most resilient if the copper rally stalls.
FM
First Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM) offers the highest drama and the biggest potential torque if copper rebounds. It operates large copper assets including Kansanshi in Zambia, and has spent the last year navigating the fallout from Cobre Panamá. The company signaled incremental progress through steps like government approval to remove and process stockpiled ore, while stressing that this does not equal a full restart.
In Q4 2025, it reported sales revenue of $1.48 billion, EBITDA of $464 million, and net earnings attributable to shareholders of $25 million, or $0.03 per share. At Kansanshi, the S3 expansion declared commercial production in December 2025 and continued to ramp, which can support higher throughput and stronger copper output as 2026 unfolds. The stock trades at about 93 times trailing earnings — not cheap, so investors will need to factor that in alongside the Panama overhang.
First Quantum is the torque story — the highest upside of the three if copper keeps rising and the Panama situation resolves, and the highest risk if either stalls. At 93x trailing earnings with an unresolved geopolitical overhang, this is a small-position, high-conviction bet rather than a core holding.
Bottom line
A copper rebound can lift a lot of boats, but these three copper stocks each bring a different flavour of upside. Capstone is the execution story — visible ramp, doubling EBITDA, clear 2026 targets. Hudbay is the cash-flow story — record free cash flow, negative net copper costs, gold credits as a cushion. First Quantum is the torque story — highest upside, highest risk, sized accordingly. If copper keeps firming, owning a mix of “execution story,” “cash-flow story,” and “torque story” can make the wait feel a lot more worthwhile.
