Contrarian investors focused on dividends are constantly searching for opportunities to buy top dividend-growth stocks at a discounted price for their self-directed Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA).
Buying stocks when they are out of favour takes courage and requires the patience to ride out volatility, but the strategy can deliver attractive dividend yields while positioning your portfolio for capital gains on a rebound.
Source: Getty Images
Canadian Natural Resources Limited
Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) trades near $42 per share at the time of writing compared to $55 at the high point in 2024.
The pullback is primarily due to weaker oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $67 per barrel at the time of writing compared to more than US$80 last year. Aside from a few brief spikes due to geopolitical events, oil prices have trended lower over the past 12 months.
In 2024, the story was mostly about weak demand in China and rising supply from non-OPEC producers, including Canada and the United States. This year, traders are trying to figure out how tariffs imposed by the United States on its trading partners will impact the American and global economies. A recession in the United States and a weaker economy in China would reduce oil demand. At the same time, OPEC is planning to increase supply to try to recapture some lost market share. This will be an additional headwind for oil prices.
Energy bulls expect the global economy to strengthen as the United States finalizes trade deals with its key partners. Disruptions in supply due to geopolitical conflicts in key producing areas could quickly push prices higher, as we have witnessed in the past year. A prolonged supply cut from a major producer could more than offset production growth.
Investors should anticipate ongoing turbulence in the near term.
CNRL Earnings
CNRL is good at navigating the turbulence in energy markets. The company does a good job of allocating capital to the parts of its portfolio that are generating the best returns amid shifting energy prices. CNRL has oil sands, conventional heavy oil, conventional light oil, offshore oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas production. The natural gas operations can provide a hedge when oil prices decline, as is the case in the current market. Natural gas prices are down from the 2025 peak, but still higher right now than they were for most of 2023 and 2024.
CNRL grows through strategic acquisitions and capital investments that bring reserves online. Last year, CNRL purchased Chevron’s Canadian assets for US$6.5 billion. The deal is helping drive revenue and profit growth in 2025 while adding to the reserves for future production expansion. In Q1, the drilling program added 57 net new oil wells and 19 net new natural gas wells with a drilling success rate of close to 100%.
CNRL generated adjusted net earnings from operations of $2.4 billion in Q1 2025 compared to $1.5 billion in the same period last year. That translates into $1.16 per share compared to $0.68 in Q1 2024. CNRL says its WTI breakeven price is roughly US$40 to US$45 per barrel, so it remains very profitable at current oil prices.
The board already raised the dividend by 4% in 2025, following two increases last year. This is the 25th consecutive annual dividend increase representing a compound annual dividend growth rate of 21% over that timeframe.
New oil and natural gas pipeline capacity running to the Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic coasts could be on the way in the coming years as Canada seeks to reduce its reliance on the United States for energy exports. CNRL would benefit from access to new international buyers if these assets are built.
The bottom line
Near-term volatility is expected in the energy market, but CNRL already looks cheap. Investors who buy the shares at the current level can pick up a decent 5.5% dividend yield. If you have some cash to put to work, this stock deserves to be on your radar.
