According to Statistics Canada, the senior population accounts for almost 20% of the total population. By 2030, it’s estimated that seniors could represent up to 23% of the population. And, according to the Canadian Institute for Health Information, the 75 and older age group will double by 2037. Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX:CSH.UN) is a dividend stock that will benefit greatly from this.
Let’s take a look at why I think that Chartwell is a good stock to turn to for your income needs.
A dividend stock with positive long-term secular trends
Chartwell is Canada’s largest provider and owner of seniors housing communities, from independent living to long-term care. This clearly sets it up to benefit greatly from the aging population.
This aging population is a macro trend that’s here to stay. It’s a long-term, secular growth trend that has been a constant theme of late, and it’s accelerating. In the last 20 years, Canada’s senior population increased 75%. In the next 20 years, this population is expected to increase 68% to 10.4 million Canadians.
This has been one of the main drivers for Chartwell’s strong history. As you can see from the price graph below, Chartwell’s stock price has increased almost 50% in the last 10 years.
While this is not the best, Chartwell also paid out a reliable and growing dividend over this time period. In fact, the company paid out almost $7 per share in dividends in the last 10 years, and its dividend grew by 15%.
Keep in mind that Chartwell’s business is a capital-intensive one, and that the pandemic years were particularly hard on this company for obvious reasons. Yet, the dividend grew in the last 10 years despite these difficult realities.
Chartwell builds momentum
Back in 2018, Chartwell laid out a strategic plan to improve the business. The company’s goals included increasing resident satisfaction as well as improving occupancy levels to 95%. As previously mentioned, Chartwell had a very difficult few years during the pandemic. This meant that these goals were at risk.
So while Chartwell is behind on these stated goals, occupancy hit 91.5% in the first quarter of 2025. And it’s expected to hit 95% by the end of the year. This is no small feat, and one that has been driven by both the macro trends I discussed and management’s marketing and advertising. For example, Chartwell held open house events and webinar series to drive interest and referrals.
What’s next for this dividend stock?
The long-term growth tailwinds are strong and they continue to be headed in the right direction for Chartwell. This, as management says, is the beginning of a long-term secular trend that will last for decades.
Right now, the supply/demand environment for senior living is favourable for Chartwell Retirement Residences. There are simply not enough suites to meet the demand of the aging population. To get to a position of equilibrium, management estimates that 200,000 suites would need to be built in the next 10 years. That’s almost three times the number of suites built in the last 10 years.
This dynamic will support strong occupancy rates, higher profits, and higher pricing. In turn, all of this will support Chartwell’s cash flows, earnings, and of course, dividends paid. In my view, this dividend stock has many more years of dividend payments and growth. It can be relied upon for income, now and into the future.
