Copper’s rally has been hard to ignore this year, and it’s reshaping how I think about my exposure to gold. While gold prices have held strong, the action in copper has been sharper, and some of the biggest moves have come from companies that straddle both metals. Two of the most interesting are Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX) and Capstone Copper (TSX:CS). Yet for different reasons, I’m not piling into gold exposure even as I like the growth story in copper.
ABX
Barrick has had an impressive run in the past 12 months, with its share price climbing more than 20% as it delivered on both production and financial goals. In the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, it produced 797,000 ounces of gold and 59,000 tonnes of copper, with copper output up a hefty 34% from Q1. Operating cash flow for the first half of the year hit $2.5 billion, up 32% from the same period in 2024, while free cash flow more than doubled to $770 million.
The gold stock used that strength to pay a $0.15 per share dividend, repurchase $268 million worth of stock in the quarter, and still invest in growth. Projects like Lumwana’s copper expansion, Pueblo Viejo’s expansion in the Dominican Republic, and the Reko Diq copper-gold mine in Pakistan are all advancing. The balance sheet looks solid, with net cash of $73 million, and its diversified portfolio is delivering. The risk is valuation. At a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) under 12, it’s cheaper than many peers, but a lot of optimism is already priced in if commodity prices wobble.
CS
Capstone Copper’s year has been even more dramatic. Its stock is up sharply from last year’s lows as it leans into copper’s strength. Q2 2025 saw record consolidated copper production of 57,416 tonnes, up 40% year over year, with costs dropping 12% to $2.45 per pound thanks to ramp-ups at Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos. The company booked record adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $215.6 million for the quarter. That’s almost double last year’s figure, and operating cash flow more than doubled to $212.4 million.
Net debt fell to $691.9 million, and total liquidity now exceeds $1.1 billion. The new environmental permit for Mantoverde Optimized removes a bottleneck for throughput, and guidance for 220,000 to 255,000 tonnes of copper this year is intact. The one hiccough is Pinto Valley, where drought and operational disruptions have crimped output, but management expects improvements by the end of Q3. Unlike Barrick, Capstone is almost entirely copper-focused, making it a direct play on that market’s fundamentals.
Copper over gold?
The reason I’m capping gold exposure now is not because I doubt gold’s resilience, but because the upside in copper plays looks more compelling in the current macro setup. Gold’s role as a hedge is still valuable, and Barrick’s copper exposure gives it a growth lever outside the precious metals space. But with gold already near record highs and investor sentiment leaning bullish, the room for surprise upside feels narrower. Copper, however, has structural demand drivers from electrification, renewable energy, and infrastructure, with supply challenges creating a potentially longer runway.
That’s not to say copper is a one-way bet. It’s notoriously cyclical, and a slowdown in global manufacturing or construction could hit prices quickly. Capstone’s high beta and project execution risks mean it will swing harder than Barrick in either direction. Barrick offers more balance, but its gold-heavy portfolio means it could lag if the yellow metal’s momentum stalls while copper keeps climbing. For now, I’m content to let copper be the bigger driver in my mining exposure and keep gold to a smaller portion, using Barrick as a diversified anchor rather than a core bet.
Bottom line
The bottom line is that both companies are executing well and are positioned for different kinds of market strength. Barrick gives me exposure to both metals with a healthy yield and strong balance sheet, while Capstone is a pure growth story in copper with near-term catalysts. By capping my exposure to gold stocks now, I’m aiming to stay flexible. Ready to lean in if the macro picture shifts, but focused on where I see the biggest long-term torque.
