Timing is everything in the stock market, and Bombardier (TSX:BBD.B) has made that decision harder for investors. Shares rocketed higher over the past year, surging more than 85% as the company keeps proving it has moved far beyond the survival story investors once knew. With Bombardier stock now trading near $165, the big question is whether it makes sense to buy now or wait for a pullback.
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What happened?
The last 12 months have been transformative. Bombardier stock delivered steady growth in its business jet division, held deliveries in line with guidance, and dramatically improved profitability. In its most recent quarter, revenue came in at $2 billion, down 8% year over year, but with services revenue climbing 16% to $590 million.
Net income jumped to $193 million compared with just $19 million last year, a sign that margins are expanding even when headline revenue dips. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) reached $297 million, while diluted earnings per share (EPS) hit $1.87. These showed strong leverage from higher service activity and operating efficiency.
More to come
What really excited investors was the order book. Bombardier stock’s backlog soared to $16.1 billion, the highest single-quarter unit order volume in more than a decade. A massive order for 50 aircraft with 70 additional options helped push Bombardier’s book-to-bill ratio to 2.3. That kind of demand shows its Global and Challenger jets remain top choices in a competitive space, while its growing defence contracts add another layer of stability. Management also continues to lean into the expanding services business, which offers more predictable revenue streams and attractive margins.
Financially, the picture is far cleaner than in the past. Debt remains high at $5.7 billion, but the company has refinanced maturities, pushed out timelines, and even earned a credit upgrade. Liquidity is solid at $1.2 billion, and although free cash flow was negative $164 million in the quarter, that spending is tied to higher deliveries expected in the second half. If those deliveries materialize, cash generation should improve.
Considerations
So, why not just buy today? Valuation is part of the hesitation. The stock trades at about 27 times trailing earnings and 19 times forward estimates. That’s rich for a cyclical aerospace company still facing execution risks. Shares also carry a beta of nearly three, meaning Bombardier stock swings sharply with broader markets. Investors who chased the stock after its last big run in 2021 learned that volatility cuts both ways. With Bombardier stock already up nearly 90% in a year, a pullback would not be surprising, especially if economic worries resurface or deliveries get delayed.
On the flip side, waiting too long could mean missing more upside if Bombardier stock delivers on its ambitious targets. The company has a clear growth story. The upcoming entry of the Global 8000 jet, ongoing services expansion in North America and abroad, and a growing defence segment. These initiatives broaden its revenue base and reduce dependence on the boom-and-bust cycles of private jet sales. The longer-term case is that Bombardier has moved from a turnaround play into a premium aerospace brand with sustainable earnings power.
Bottom line
Demand for business jets is still tied to global wealth cycles, and any cooling in high-net-worth spending could dampen new orders. Debt may be better managed, but leverage is still high compared with peers, leaving less room for error. And while services growth is attractive, it’s not yet large enough to insulate the company from big swings in deliveries.
At the end of the day, Bombardier stock looks like a company that has earned back investor confidence. Buying now means paying up for momentum, but waiting for a pullback requires patience and the discipline to act if shares slide. For long-term investors who believe in Bombardier’s new trajectory, starting with a partial position today and adding on dips could strike the right balance. The stock has already shown it can reward those willing to take the ride, but the journey will remain a bumpy one.
