If you’d parked $10,000 in Canadian National Railway (TSX:CNR) stock 10 years ago and left it alone, you’d be sitting on a surprisingly solid pile of wealth today. While tech gets the headlines and speculative stocks capture imaginations, CN has quietly delivered a masterclass in long-term compounding. Over the last decade, it has not only rewarded shareholders with price appreciation but has consistently sweetened the deal with rising dividends, creating a powerful one-two punch.
Looking back
Back in August 2015, CN stock traded around $77 per share. Today, it hovers near $131. That’s a gain of roughly 70% before you even count dividends. It’s not the kind of eye-popping result you’d get from a lucky bet on a micro cap, but it’s exactly the kind of steady, growing return that builds real wealth.
Part of CN’s success lies in its business model. As North America’s largest railway by revenue, it connects three coasts and handles everything from grains to oil to intermodal freight. This diversity cushions it from sector-specific slowdowns and gives it a unique view of the broader economy. Even when the economy stumbles, trains still run.
The recent past
That said, the last 12 months haven’t been easy. The Canadian stock is down nearly 16% from its highs in mid-2024, pressured by a mix of macroeconomic headwinds and trade volatility. In its most recent quarter, CN reported revenue of $4.27 billion, down 1% year over year, and operating income of $1.64 billion, up 5%. Earnings per share (EPS) rose 7%, though adjusted EPS was up a more modest 2%. That’s the kind of resilient result you want to see in a tough environment.
Management has trimmed its 2025 guidance, citing persistent uncertainty related to tariffs and global trade policy. It now expects mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth this year, down from an earlier forecast of 10% to 15%. At the same time, they’re still planning to invest over $3 billion into infrastructure, which should pay off once conditions improve. Grain shipments remain strong, and the Canadian stock expects Canadian and U.S. crop yields to hold up through 2026.
Looking ahead
For long-term investors, the dividend story is just as compelling. CN’s payout has grown steadily over the years, and the current annual dividend sits at $3.55 per share. That’s a yield of 2.7%. Not flashy, but entirely backed by strong free cash flow. The Canadian stock’s payout ratio sits below 50%, leaving ample room for reinvestment, buybacks, and future raises. In a market where some big names are slashing dividends, CN’s discipline stands out.
Valuation-wise, the pullback in price has brought CN back to earth. It trades at roughly 17 times forward earnings and about 3.8 times book value. That’s not cheap in absolute terms, but for a Canadian stock with this kind of track record and moat, it’s reasonable. CN’s return on equity remains above 22%, and its operating margin north of 40% shows it hasn’t lost its edge.
Bottom line
Of course, there are risks. CN’s performance is closely tied to industrial activity and trade flows, both of which remain unpredictable in the current environment. Weather disruptions, labour negotiations, and energy prices can all cause hiccups. But over the long haul, CN has proven it can manage through turbulence and keep the trains – and shareholder returns – on track. So how much would you have earned? A $10,000 investment would have increased to about $17,086, plus annual income of $465 through dividends. All together, that’s about $11,736 in returns including dividends!
| COMPANY | ORIGINAL PRICE (2015) | ORIGINAL INVESTMENT | RECENT PRICE (2025) | NUMBER OF SHARES | DIVIDEND | TOTAL PAYOUT | FREQUENCY | TOTAL INVESTMENT (Now) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNR | $75.78 | $10,000 | $130.27 | 131 | $3.55 | $465.05 | Quarterly | $17,086.37 |
In hindsight, buying CN 10 years ago was a smart move. But the real lesson isn’t about what happened in the past. It’s that the qualities that made CN a winner of durable operations, smart capital allocation, and rising dividends are still very much intact. And those qualities may just set the stage for another decade of steady growth.
