Big news in the lithium world today as Lithium Americas (TSX:LAC) announced some huge backing from the United States. This led to a surge in the share price, yet it still begs the question: does that make it a buy, or is the backing now priced in? Let’s dig into it.
What happened?
First, let’s look at what actually happened. Last month, the U.S. government stated its support for Thacker Pass. The Department of Energy (DOG) came into first draw terms, or the initial distribution of funds, coming to US$435 million on a US$2.23 billion loan from the DOE. It agreed to defer US$182 million of debt service in the first five years, easing near-term cash pressure.
What’s more, General Motors (NYSE:GM) remains the joint venture partner, with 62% for LAC and 38% for GM voting split. Altogether, the addition of Thacker Pass is looking incredible, with DOE and GM now both backing LAC’s growth. And it’s clear why. LAC hit phase one and has moved into major construction. During the second quarter, steady execution was underway with engineering 70% complete and first steel being made. With 300 workers now, it aims for 1,000 by the year’s end and 1,800 in 2026.
Into earnings
So, let’s dive deeper into those earnings that made the U.S. want to get on board. While the net loss widened to US$24.8 million for six months, almost double the year before, this was driven by costs associated with construction and Orion closing. Meanwhile, the stock’s balance sheet overall still looks quite strong.
As of writing, LAC trades with total debt at US$206.7 million, trading at 2.5 times book value. And now, after shares jumped about 25% after the backing, the stock trades up a whopping 128% in the last year alone! So, it’s clear that it’s not exactly a value play as of writing, especially after making these headlines.
Considerations
I would almost certainly wait until the excitement dies down for LAC stock. Investors will want to take out their earnings, and that will leave a prime place to jump in on an expanding stock. The truth remains the same: LAC is expanding quickly, and that leaves investors with strong growth — not just in the next year, but for decades to come, supported by the DOE and GM.
It’s now one of the largest measured lithium resources and a U.S. onshore supply solution. This offers it high strategic value with critical minerals on deck. However, costs creep up, supply chain issues come into play, and other delays could keep the stock from reaching its full potential. What’s more, there’s no near-term cash flow, so equity value is entirely forward-looking on project delivery and lithium demand. These are all important considerations before jumping on the Canadian stock.
Bottom line
What investors will want to do is go through a checklist for a while to watch for potential triggers. The final DOE loan will give exact definitions on timing and joint venture warrants. Investors will also want to watch quarterly construction updates and any further equity raises or note conversions. And, of course, we’ll all hope the price of lithium continues to rise. As always, be sure to discuss any future investment with your financial advisor before making a decision.
