While the broader markets are hovering near record levels, several TSX stocks have fallen from their peaks in 2025. Valued at a market cap of $463 million, Computer Modelling Group (TSX: CMG) is down almost 64% from all-time highs, allowing you to buy the dip.
Computer Modelling Group is a software and consulting technology company specializing in reservoir simulation and seismic interpretation solutions for the oil and gas industry. CMG develops advanced software tools that help engineers model oil recovery processes, optimize reservoir performance, and forecast production in conventional and unconventional reservoirs.
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Is the TSX stock a good buy right now?
Computer Modelling Group aims to pivot from a niche reservoir simulation software provider to a diversified energy technology platform. CEO Pramod Jain outlined the company’s progress since launching its CMG 4.0 strategy three years ago. Jain recently highlighted how CMG has doubled revenue to around $130 million while maintaining strong cash generation from its core business.
The strategy centers on three pillars: organic growth in the company’s legacy reservoir simulation business, margin expansion, and strategic acquisitions.
The core simulation business continues to generate healthy cash flow with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) margins above 40% and an impressive 80% conversion to free cash flow. This cash engine has funded $73 million in acquisitions over the past two years, adding $50 million in annual revenue without taking on debt.
Acquisition strategy
CMG has completed four acquisitions focused on seismic data processing and interpretation, building what management calls a platform approach. The company purchased Bluware, Sharp Reflections, and, most recently, Seisware a few weeks ago.
These deals expand CMG’s presence across the upstream oil and gas workflow, from initial seismic data collection through economic analysis. The acquired businesses typically operate at lower margins than the core simulation business, creating opportunities for profitability improvement as CMG applies its operational playbook.
Management made a decisive move by cutting the dividend by 80% to $0.02 per share, freeing up $13 million annually for acquisitions. Investor feedback consistently showed shareholders prioritize capital deployment and returns over dividend yield. The company is also establishing a credit facility to provide additional firepower for deals.
The business model focuses on solving complex problems for engineers and scientists involved in oil and gas extraction, carbon capture, and enhanced recovery operations. CMG serves 450 oil and gas companies across 60 countries, including nine of the ten supermajors. The mission-critical nature of the software, combined with high switching costs, creates significant barriers to entry.
Is this small-cap TSX stock undervalued?
Looking ahead, CMG plans to expand beyond upstream oil and gas into midstream operations and adjacent verticals like mining and water management, where similar complex scientific problems exist.
Analysts tracking the TSX tech stock forecast revenue to increase from $109 million in 2024 to $247 million in 2029. In this period, free cash flow is projected to grow from $35.4 million to $86 million.
If CMG stock is priced at a reasonable FCF multiple of 12%, it should double within the next four years. Analysts remain bullish on the TSX stock and forecast a gain of almost 40% over the next 12 months, given consensus price targets.
