As the Canadian banking industry is highly regulated, it offers an environment for home-grown incumbents to thrive across economic cycles. The top TSX banks have managed to generate consistent profits and maintain dividends even amid economic downturns such as the Great Financial Crisis of 2008–09.
In this article, I have identified two Canadian bank stocks I’d buy for dividend growth in 2025 and beyond.
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Is this TSX bank stock a good buy?
Valued at a market cap of $3.4 billion, EQB (TSX:EQB), Canada’s Challenger Bank, reported disappointing fiscal Q3 results as credit challenges intensified and profitability declined sharply.
It reported a net income of $80.3 million, down 32% year over year while return on equity (RoE) fell to 10.1% from 12.4% in the year-to-date period. EQB forecasts fiscal 2025 (ending in October) RoE at 11.5%, below its midpoint target range of 16%.
Credit quality deteriorated in the personal lending portfolio as gross impaired loans jumped 5% to $815 million, driven by single-family residential mortgages, which increased 9.5% to $352 million.
Chief Risk Officer Marlene Lenarduzzi explained that roughly 50 loans concentrated in Toronto suburbs are driving 80% of the provisions, with some areas seeing house price declines of 25% to 30% from their 2022 peak.
Stage 3 provisions remained elevated at $22.9 million, while performing provisions added another $10 million due to worsening macroeconomic forecasts.
The net interest margin compressed to 1.95%, down 25 basis points from the elevated second quarter levels, though management maintains guidance for above 2% for the full year.
The margin pressure came from three primary sources:
- Higher-margin commercial loans with floor rates maturing and repricing
- EQ Bank deposit dynamics as customers shifted to higher-rate products
- Increased liquidity from securitization activity
CEO change
Chadwick Westlake returned as CEO after the tragic passing of Andrew Moor, with Anilisa Sainani joining as CFO. Westlake emphasized returning to profitable growth and restoring the bank’s best-in-class efficiency ratio, which rose to 53% in the quarter.
He outlined three strategic priorities: strengthening competitive advantages in existing winning segments, executing diversification strategies in payments and wealth, and investing in AI capabilities.
EQB stock has increased its annual dividend per share from $0.42 in 2016 to $1.74 in 2024. Bay Street forecasts the dividend payout to increase to $2.74 per share in 2028.
Analysts tracking the TSX dividend stock forecast adjusted earnings to expand from $9.58 per share in 2025 to $12.47 per share in 2028. If the Canadian bank stock is priced at nine times forward earnings, which is reasonable, it should gain 25% from current levels over the next two years. After we account for dividend reinvestments, cumulative returns could be closer to 30%.
Is this large-cap bank stock a good buy?
Valued at a market cap of $60 billion, National Bank of Canada (TSX:NA) has increased its annual dividends from $2.18 per share in 2016 to $4.32 per share in 2024. Analysts forecast dividends to expand to $5.33 per share in fiscal 2029.
National Bank of Canada’s specialty finance subsidiary Credigy is delivering strong performance as a key growth driver for the Canadian lender’s U.S. expansion strategy.
With more than $8 billion in assets, Credigy operates as a pure business-to-business lender, purchasing and financing financial assets across mortgage, consumer, and insurance-related products rather than originating loans directly to consumers.
The structured mortgage credit segment is Credigy’s largest business line, which targets high credit quality borrowers with low loan-to-value ratios.
Credigy maintains an exceptionally efficient operating structure with an efficiency ratio below 30%, though this varies based on asset mix. The subsidiary targets 5% to 10% annual asset growth over the long term, though Greene stressed the company prioritizes consistent risk discipline over hitting growth targets. When market conditions tighten spreads too much relative to risk, Credigy simply deploys less capital and waits for better opportunities.
Analysts tracking NA stock forecast adjusted earnings to expand from $10.39 per share in fiscal 2024 to $12.64 per share in fiscal 2027. If the TSX dividend stock is priced at 14 times earnings, it could gain more than 20% within the next 18 months, after adjusting for dividends.
