When a stock is down from its all-time high, it can look like a bargain. Yet that’s often when you need to be most careful. Not every dip is an opportunity, and not every recovery is guaranteed. To tell the difference, it’s worth asking what really caused the drop, and what the business looks like now versus when it peaked.
Considerations
Start with the reason for the decline. A market-wide sell-off can drag good companies down with bad. Those are often the best opportunities because the underlying businesses remain strong, but sentiment temporarily pushes prices lower. On the other hand, if the drop stems from declining earnings, shrinking market share, or debt problems, the lower price might reflect real damage rather than investor overreaction.
Next, look at valuation compared to fundamentals. A company might be down 22% from its peak, but that doesn’t automatically make it cheap. Compare its price-to-earnings, price-to-cash-flow, or price-to-book ratios against historical averages. If those multiples are still high despite the pullback, the market might simply be revaluing it toward more realistic levels. It’s also important to assess the company’s financial resilience. Businesses that carry heavy debt or rely on continuous growth funding are more vulnerable during downturns. A company with solid free cash flow, a manageable debt load, and recurring revenue can weather rough patches and emerge stronger.
Then consider whether the industry is changing. Some declines are the market’s way of saying the story has moved on. For example, a tech company that thrived in the pandemic might see revenue flatten as demand normalizes, or an energy firm might face long-term shifts toward renewables. A stock down 2% from its high in that context may not be “cheap.” It may be adjusting to a new normal. Look for businesses whose core markets are still growing or evolving in ways they can benefit from, not ones that are structurally shrinking.
Goeasy
goeasy (TSX:GSY) has been one of the most impressive Canadian growth-and-dividend stories over the past decade, even after its share price cooled off from all-time highs. The stock is still well below record levels, but the business itself has continued to grow. Its core business is consumer lending, offering non-prime loans, leases, and financing options through its easyfinancial and easyhome brands. Despite higher interest rates, goeasy’s loan book has expanded steadily, and delinquencies remain well within manageable levels.
In its latest earnings report, the dividend stock posted record revenue of $418 million, and loan growth at $904 million in loan originations.That’s critical, because it suggests the business model can hold up through economic cycles. From a valuation standpoint, goeasy looks compelling. The shares trade at a 10 P/E ratio, well below their historical average and below most financial peers with similar growth. The dividend stock also pays a healthy dividend yield, currently around 3.5%, and has been growing that dividend aggressively. In fact, management has increased the payout every year for nearly a decade, including double-digit hikes even during turbulent markets.
One of the big reasons investors are hesitant is the macro backdrop. Consumer lenders don’t usually thrive when borrowing costs are high and households are stretched. But goeasy has proven it can manage credit risk exceptionally well. Its loan-loss provisions are conservative, and its portfolio quality has held up. The dividend stock’s underwriting model uses detailed risk analytics, and its customer base tends to be repeat borrowers with established payment histories. All considered, it has proven to be able to handle whatever the market throws its way.
Bottom line
goeasy stock may still be down from its highs, but the business has never been stronger. Its balance sheet, cash generation, and proven lending model give it the tools to keep growing earnings and dividends over the long term. The current price reflects caution about the economy, not a collapse in fundamentals. Now, that gap could represent opportunity. For long-term investors comfortable with some economic sensitivity, goeasy looks like a well-run, undervalued dividend stock worth buying before sentiment catches up to performance.
