It always pays to invest early. By the time everyone realizes this, the opportunity to make good returns would have already passed. Thus, smart investors don’t follow the herd but invest in the future. Canada is currently at an inflection point where the government is looking to export its resources, such as oil, natural gas, uranium, and other critical minerals, to countries other than the United States. However, these resources are locked in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which have limited offshore export potential. To make these resources available for export, significant infrastructure investment is required.
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Is now a good time to bet on Canadian infrastructure?
Since 2017, infrastructure spending has slowed, with projects facing significant delays due to lengthy approvals.
In Budget 2025, the federal government announced a $115 billion investment in major projects of transportation, energy development, and housing over the next five years. To accelerate the projects, it introduced the One Canadian Economy Act. It also set up the Major Projects Office (MPO), a government agency to oversee the implementation of major projects.
However, Canadian executives believe that these projects could face delays due to legal challenges from indigenous leaders. Short-term hiccups are normal when a new change is introduced. But the fact that there is money on the table for critical infrastructure is likely to drive growth.
Drawing parallels between the current infrastructure focus and the previous boom from 2010 to 2014, you can see it took time for things to happen.
It began when Stephen Harper became Canada’s Prime Minister in 2006. He allotted $37 billion for infrastructure development in the 2007 Budget. But the 2008 global recession slowed things down. With significant government spending, civil construction peaked in the early 2010s, with average annual spending of $46.5 billion from 2011 through 2014.
Why is smart money betting on Canadian infrastructure?
During the 2011–2014 peak, infrastructure companies witnessed triple-digit growth. Today seems to be a similar opportunity, as in 2007. The infrastructure momentum will take time to materialize. The government has to develop an ecosystem, remove the hiccups, and get stakeholders on the same page, which could take two to three years.
Smart investors are betting on them now to benefit from the growth cycle. For instance, Eldorado Gold jumped to acquire Foran Mining in an all‑share deal in February as the latter’s McIlvenna Bay (Saskatchewan) copper mine was selected by the MPO. Canada Nickel Company is another direct beneficiary of the MPO because of its Crawford Nickel Project.
While these companies are direct beneficiaries on the project front, the real growth is in companies that will facilitate this infrastructure growth.
Aecon Group
Aecon Group (TSX:ARE) is a construction and infrastructure development company. Its stock rose 225% in 2007, when Harper announced the infrastructure budget. That rally did not last due to the 2008 recession. However, the stock saw two growth phases in 2009 and then from August 2011 to March 2024, when construction was at its peak. Aecon played an instrumental role in delivering several infrastructure projects.
History might repeat itself. Aecon has secured the construction order for the Darlington New Nuclear Project in Ontario, which is amongst the major projects approved by the MPO. Its order backlog surged 80% to its new high of $10.8 billion, and it secured $495 million in new orders in the third quarter of 2025.
After the Budget announcement in November 2025, Aecon’s share price surged 48%, and the stock surged 140% from its April 2025 low. While tariffs pulled down many stocks, the decision to retaliate against tariffs with infrastructure-led growth made Aecon a smart investor’s choice.
