An economic slowdown south of the border is no longer a forecast, it’s a fact. U.S. GDP growth came in at just 1.4% annualized in the fourth quarter, unemployment was 4.4% in February, and trade policy uncertainty is still unresolved. For Canadian investors, that means the question has shifted from “what if the U.S. slows” to “which of my holdings can keep earning while it does.”
U.S. demand influences everything from factory output to freight volumes to energy prices, and the TSX includes plenty of Canadian stocks that depend on that engine. That’s why it helps to own a few businesses that can keep earning even as growth cools.
Source: Getty Images
TIH
Toromont Industries (TSX:TIH) looks built for a softer U.S. backdrop as it makes money from keeping equipment running, not just from selling shiny new machines. It sells and services heavy equipment through its Equipment Group, and it owns CIMCO, which builds industrial refrigeration systems for food and cold-chain infrastructure. Over the last year, it benefited from steady product support demand and strong order activity, even while management talked openly about “macroeconomic and trade uncertainty.”
The most recent results showed that it can stay steady even without a booming economy. In Q4 2025, revenue rose 9% to $1.42 billion, and net earnings edged up to $157.2 million, or $1.93 per share. For full-year 2025, revenue rose 4% to $5.2028 billion, with net earnings of $496.6 million and earnings per share (EPS) of $6.11. It also increased its quarterly dividend to $0.56 per share. Valuation remains premium, with a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) around 33.6 and a forward P/E around 23.1, so the risk is that any slowdown compresses the multiple even if the business keeps performing.
BIR
Birchcliff Energy (TSX:BIR) can hold up in a U.S. slowdown as it runs a low-cost Montney gas business with meaningful exposure to higher-priced markets. It leaned into market diversification, selling into Dawn and NYMEX-linked pricing rather than living and dying by AECO. Over the last year, that positioning mattered as gas pricing swung around, and Birchcliff focused on doing the basics well: grow production, reduce debt, and keep a base dividend that does not force bad decisions.
In 2025, it generated adjusted funds flow of $422.8 million in 2025, up sharply from 2024, and free funds flow of $116.9 million. It reduced total debt to $459.9 million and improved its total debt to adjusted funds flow ratio to 1.1 times at year-end 2025. That kind of balance-sheet progress can matter more than a hot commodity tape if the U.S. slows and risk appetite fades. The valuation still bakes in some caution, with a trailing P/E around 24.4, and the main risk remains obvious: a weak gas market can still bully any producer, even a disciplined one.
GIL
Gildan Activewear (TSX:GIL) might not sound defensive at first, but basics can be surprisingly durable in a slower economy. People may delay big purchases, but they still buy everyday apparel, and companies still order printwear for uniforms, events, and workwear. Over the last year, Gildan also reshaped its story with the HanesBrands acquisition, which added scale and brands.
The latest quarter put real numbers behind that momentum. In Q4 2025, it reported net sales of about US$1.08 billion, up 31.3% year over year, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.96. Cash flow from operations came in at $336 million, and free cash flow reached $304 million for the quarter, with full-year free cash flow of $493 million. It also announced a 10% dividend increase for 2026 and talked about targeting meaningful cost savings from the deal.
Bottom line
You do not need to hide under the couch when the U.S. slows, but you do want to own companies that can keep producing real results. None of the stocks I talked about are risk-free, but each has a practical reason it can keep standing, even if the U.S. economy takes a breather. That is the kind of thinking that comes up all the time in Stock Advisor Canada: Invest in stocks with a reason to hold up, not just a hope. If that message resonates with you, it’s worth checking out.
