If you’re looking for a single growth stock with real upside in 2026, First Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM) deserves a serious look right now.
The Vancouver-based copper miner recently completed a major expansion, is inching closer to restarting one of the world’s largest idle copper mines, and is operating in a commodity market that’s tightening fast. The setup is about as good as it gets for a company of this size.
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First Quantum stock is at a turning point
First Quantum isn’t a household name for most retail investors. But in the mining world, it’s known for doing something rare: building and operating complex mines at scale.
The company explores and produces copper, gold, nickel, silver, and zinc across five continents. Its flagship asset is the Kansanshi mine in Zambia’s Northwestern Province. And after years of heavy investment, Kansanshi just became much more powerful.
The Kansanshi S3 expansion declared commercial production on December 1, 2025. At 25 million tons per annum throughput capacity, it’s one of the largest brownfield copper projects delivered globally in recent years, according to CEO Tristan Pascall on the company’s fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings call.
The expansion hit 90% of its design capacity within five months of initial production: a fast ramp-up for a project of this size.
For 2026, Kansanshi is expected to produce between 175,000 and 205,000 tons of copper, with S3 contributing over 84,000 tons of that total. That’s a meaningful step up from prior years.
The Cobre Panama wildcard
Cobre Panama, First Quantum’s massive mine in Panama, has been idle since late 2023 following political unrest and a government-ordered shutdown. The closure has been a significant drag on the company’s financials. But the ice is starting to thaw.
In January 2026, Panama’s president announced the government would approve the removal, processing, and export of ore stockpiles at the site.
- Processing the stockpiles is expected to take about a year and produce roughly 70,000 tons of copper.
- Cash costs are estimated at around US$2.90 per pound.
- Better yet, First Quantum expects to be broadly cash-flow neutral at Cobre Panama by year-end, once processing begins, meaning the site will no longer be a drain on the balance sheet.
- An independent environmental audit of the site is expected to wrap up in April 2026.
- That could open the door to broader discussions with the Panamanian government about a longer-term resolution.
A full restart could require $300 million to $500 million in total capital, including stockpile processing costs, according to Pascall.
Copper fundamentals add fuel
The macro picture is working in First Quantum’s favour. During Q4, the copper price averaged US$5.03 per pound, and four of the world’s top 20 copper mines were running at reduced output. Notably, U.S. stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs has added further pressure on demand.
First Quantum’s existing hedges, covering roughly 20% of 2026 production, expire by mid-year. After that, the company gets full exposure to spot copper prices, a significant tailwind at current prices.
The company ended 2025 with US$1.9 billion in liquidity and an S&P credit rating that just moved to a positive outlook. The balance sheet still carries meaningful debt at 3.3 times net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, but the trend is improving.
For investors willing to take on some complexity, First Quantum offers a rare combination: a newly expanded mine delivering results, a dormant giant that may come back online, and a commodity market that’s increasingly tight.
The TSX mining stock is forecast to expand its free cash flow (FCF) from US$317 million in 2025 to US$3.8 billion in 2029. If First Quantum stock is priced at 10 times forward FCF, which is cheap, it could gain over 100% within the next three years.
