The trade tensions began in 2025 with tariffs on almost every good. It then escalated to war, and oil took center stage in escalating trade tensions. The Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland episodes are all attempts to boost demand for the petrodollar. Trade tensions escalating into war have blocked supply chains and made oil and gas a commodity that is minting money from trade tensions.
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Canadian companies finding opportunity amid trade tensions
Canada is using trade tensions as an opportunity to diversify its energy trade partners beyond the United States. It is building logistics corridors to make its oil sands reserves in Alberta and Saskatchewan accessible to the world. This could open up new opportunities for Canadian companies operating in the field of oil and gas production and energy infrastructure.
Canadian Natural Resources
Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) stock jumped 200% in five years, with a 56% rally coming in 2026 as the Iran war created energy shockwaves. A similar shockwave in 2022 after the Russia-Ukraine war sent the stock up 75%. The stock did see a sharp dip of 30% in June 2022 as oil prices corrected. However, trade tensions escalated and kept the stock price elevated at $30–$35.
Canadian Natural Resources has the low-cost advantage. It leveraged trade tension-induced energy demand growth to grow its production significantly by acquiring more oil sands reserves. The acquisitions increased its debt to $18.7 billion in 2024, but it used the high cash flows from high demand to repay most of the debt and lower the net debt level below $16 billion. This helped it increase its production capacity without increasing the interest burden, which could have become a liability in an energy crisis. It plans to continue repaying debt and keep it below $13 billion, as that is where it will allocate 100% free cash flow to provide returns to shareholders.
Apart from CNQ’s financial discipline, the structural change in the global supply chain gives the company an opportunity to sell oil and gas to international markets.
Energy infrastructure enabling trade
Supporting the trade diversification opportunity is the development of energy infrastructure. TC Energy (TSX:TRP) will significantly benefit from North American liquified natural gas (LNG) exports. The LNG export opportunity that started with the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 is growing as trade tensions escalate.
TC Energy’s Coastal GasLink pipeline connects directly to LNG Canada, Canada’s first LNG export facility. It started operations in June 2025, and its Phase 2 is under construction. TC Energy also has the Nova Gas Transmission Line (NGTL) that gathers gas from Alberta and connects with other export lines.
Are these Canadian stocks a buy amid trade tensions?
The two stocks surged significantly in the two energy shockwaves: first during the Russia-Ukraine war, and second from the Venezuela crisis and the US-Israel and Iran war. These stocks are currently trading near their all-time high. Now may not be a good time to invest in them. However, they are worth adding to the watchlist.
A correction could be in the cards depending on how the negotiations between the US and Iran progress. In either case, the world energy supply order will reset, and oil prices will stabilize below US$100. That will drive a correction in their stock price, making them a buy-and-hold for the long term, as they continue paying dividends even in an energy crisis.
