Prediction: This Utility Stock Dip Won’t Last Much Longer

ATCO looks like a “utility-plus” dividend grower, so any pullback may be brief if results stay steady.

Key Points
  • ATCO blends regulated utility earnings with infrastructure and logistics businesses, giving it stability and extra growth drivers.
  • Recent quarterly results showed modest earnings growth and continued heavy investment in the regulated utility base.
  • The yield is only about 3%, but a 33-year dividend-growth streak supports long-term TFSA compounding.

Investors buy utility stocks for stability, dividends, and steady earnings when the market gets jumpy. Yet ATCO (TSX: ACO.X) looks more interesting than the usual utility right now. Shares have already had a strong run over the past year, so any dip can make investors wonder whether the move ran too far. My view? A pullback likely won’t last long if earnings keep backing up the story.

A meter measures energy use.

Source: Getty Images

ACO

ATCO is not a simple power company. The Calgary-based business owns a large stake in Canadian Utilities, which gives it regulated electricity and natural gas exposure. It also operates structures, logistics, energy infrastructure, and other businesses tied to housing, defence, resources, and northern development. That mix gives ATCO a steadier base than many cyclical stocks, but also more growth angles than investors often expect from a utility.

Investors still want dependable income, but also want companies with visible growth. ATCO’s first-quarter results gave them both. The company reported adjusted earnings of $165 million, or $1.47 per share, up from $160 million, or $1.43 per share, a year earlier. IFRS earnings also rose to $152 million, or $1.35 per share. Those numbers show a business still moving forward while higher rates and cautious markets pressure many dividend names.

The utility side remains the anchor. Canadian Utilities delivered adjusted earnings of $127 million in the quarter, helped by rate-base growth and regulatory decisions. ATCO also kept investing, with $419 million in capital spending during the quarter and most of it directed to regulated utilities.

More to come

The growth kicker comes from the non-utility side. ATCO Structures reported higher adjusted earnings and continued to win work tied to workforce housing, mining, and infrastructure. ATCO Frontec also secured a $41 million water treatment contract in Nunavut. These projects may not grab the same attention as artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, but show ATCO can benefit from real-world infrastructure demand in remote and resource-heavy regions.

The dividend strengthens the case. ATCO declared a quarterly dividend of $0.52 per share for 2026, giving the stock a forward yield around 2.9%. More importantly, the company now holds a 33-year dividend-growth streak. A yield near 3% will not thrill income hunters chasing double-digit payouts, but a rising dividend from a stable business can do more for long-term wealth than a high yield that later gets cut.

Still, the dip looks more like a pause than a warning. ATCO has earnings growth, regulated investment, a long dividend-growth record, and multiple infrastructure themes working in its favour. The stock needs steady project execution and continued utility growth. Add in Canada’s need for power, housing, and remote infrastructure, and the setup still looks practical. For patient TFSA investors, that combination can still look rare today. All while collecting strong income from even a $7,000 investment.

COMPANYRECENT PRICENUMBER OF SHARESANNUAL DIVIDENDANNUAL TOTAL PAYOUTFREQUENCYTOTAL INVESTMENT
ACO.X$70.4999$2.05$202.95Quarterly$6,978.51

Bottom line

Investors should stay balanced. ATCO stock can stumble if regulatory outcomes disappoint, debt costs rise, or large projects run over budget. The company will not offer the same upside as a smaller growth stock during a risk-on rally. But for investors looking for a dependable Canadian utility with more going on under the hood, any dip could prove short-lived. If the next few quarters confirm the same trend, ATCO stock may not stay overlooked for much longer.

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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