3 TSX Stocks to Buy Before the Next Oil Spike Hits

These three TSX energy names can turn a commodity rally into real cash flow, without needing perfect conditions.

Key Points
  • Suncor benefits from higher crude prices and refining strength, and it has the scale to return cash to shareholders.
  • Keyera is a midstream toll-collector that can win from higher volumes and visible expansion projects.
  • Tourmaline offers more upside torque through huge production and balance-sheet flexibility if energy prices spike.

Before the next oil spike hits, the best stocks to own are usually the ones that can turn stronger commodity prices into bigger cash flow without needing everything to go perfectly. That often means large integrated producers, energy infrastructure names that collect steady fees as volumes rise, and efficient upstream companies with strong balance sheets. In a jittery market, those are often the stocks that can turn a messy macro backdrop into real gains.

trading chart of brent crude oil prices

Source: Getty Images

SU

Suncor Energy (TSX: SU) is an easy fit. It produces oil sands crude, runs refineries, and sells fuel through Petro-Canada, so it can benefit when crude rises and refining margins stay healthy. Over the last year, it has kept pushing stronger operations and shareholder returns.

For 2025, Suncor stock reported net earnings of $5.9 billion, adjusted funds from operations of $12.8 billion, and free funds flow of $6.9 billion. It also returned $5.8 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. That is a lot of firepower for a company that gets more sensitive when oil climbs, with its annual report showing that a US$1 per barrel increase in crude would have added about $210 million to 2025 net earnings and adjusted funds from operations.

The valuation still looks reasonable for that setup. Suncor stock holds a market cap around $109 billion and a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 19 at writing. That’s not dirt cheap, but it is not demanding for a business with record upstream production, record fourth-quarter refining throughput, and a built-in cushion from its downstream assets. If oil spikes again, Suncor stock doesn’t need to reinvent itself, but just keep doing what it already does well.

KEY

Keyera (TSX: KEY), meanwhile, is not a pure producer. Instead, it owns the gathering, processing, transportation, storage, and fractionation assets that help move energy products through the system. When activity rises across Western Canada, infrastructure operators can benefit from higher volumes and new customer demand. Over the last year, Keyera has kept advancing growth projects, including the KFS Frac III expansion and the KAPS Zone 4 pipeline extension. Those projects should support more growth well beyond a single commodity rally.

Its latest numbers were solid enough to back that story. In 2025, Keyera reported net earnings of $432.3 million, distributable cash flow of $735.2 million, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.13 billion, or $1.16 billion adjusted for acquisition-related items. It also stuck with its target for 7% to 8% fee-based adjusted EBITDA growth from 2024 to 2027.

At writing, Keyera trades at 26.5 times trailing earnings. So not a bargain-bin multiple, but midstream names often earn that premium when they combine dependable cash flow with visible project growth. If oil and liquids markets heat up, Keyera should have more than one way to benefit.

TOU

Tourmaline (TSX: TOU) is Canada’s largest natural gas producer, but also has meaningful liquids exposure, and that matters in a stronger oil tape. Over the last year, it kept building out that story with record production, new LNG-related gas supply deals, and a balance-sheet push that included reducing debt and selling non-core assets. Its March 2026 update showed record fourth-quarter 2025 production of 659,204 barrels of oil equivalent per day, while January 2026 production topped 685,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) before the impact of an asset sale.

This one needs a bit more nuance on valuation. It shows a market cap around $25.2 billion and a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) near 95.6, but that number looks inflated beside the company’s underlying cash generation. Tourmaline ended 2025 with net debt of $1.5 billion and set a 2026 production range of 620,000 to 640,000 boe/d while continuing to trim capital spending.

In other words, it still has scale, balance-sheet flexibility, and strong operating momentum. If energy prices jump again, Tourmaline looks like the kind of name that could move fast.

Bottom line

Put it all together, and the playbook looks pretty simple. Suncor stock offers scale and direct oil sensitivity with downstream support. Keyera offers steadier cash flow tied to rising energy activity. Tourmaline offers more torque if the market suddenly starts rewarding efficient producers again. If investors think another oil spike is coming, these three stocks look like a smart place to start.

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Keyera and Tourmaline Oil. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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