Rates Aren’t Falling: Here’s What I’d Do With My TFSA

With rate cuts delayed, Manulife looks like a TFSA-friendly way to earn dividends while waiting for the cycle to turn.

Key Points
  • Don’t build your TFSA around rate-cut timing; pick businesses that can perform with rates “higher for longer.”
  • Manulife is diversified across insurance, wealth, and Asia, and it can benefit from reinvesting premiums at higher yields.
  • Strong recent earnings and a healthy capital buffer support its dividend, but markets and the economy can still hit results.

The rate-cut wait keeps dragging on. For Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) investors, that can feel frustrating. Lower rates usually help stocks, housing, borrowers, and anything tied to future growth. But when rates stay higher for longer, investors need a different plan. That’s why I’d look for a company that can earn through the cycle, pay income, and benefit from markets that still need long-term financial protection.

woman looks out at horizon

Source: Getty Images

What fits

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on April 29, 2026, and its next decision comes on June 10. That doesn’t mean cuts won’t come later, but it does mean investors shouldn’t build a TFSA around one neat rate-cut story. A stronger plan looks for businesses that can handle sticky rates, uneven markets, and nervous consumers.

Manulife Financial (TSX: MFC) fits that setup as it isn’t just an insurance company. It sells life insurance, health products, wealth management, retirement solutions, and asset-management services across Canada, the United States, and Asia. Therefore, it can collect premiums, manage assets, earn investment income, and expand into faster-growing markets.

Higher rates can create pressure for some financial companies. They can slow borrowing, dent asset values, and make investors more cautious, but insurers can also benefit when they reinvest premiums at better yields. The key is balance. Manulife stock still needs strong sales, solid capital, and disciplined risk management. Recent results suggest it has those pieces in place.

Into earnings

In the first quarter of 2026, Manulife stock reported core earnings of $1.8 billion, up 8% from last year on a constant exchange rate basis. Core earnings per share (EPS) climbed 11% to $1.06. Net income attributed to shareholders reached $1.1 billion, up $700 million from the same quarter last year. The company also reported a 136% LICAT ratio, which points to a healthy capital cushion.

A TFSA rewards patience. Investors don’t pay tax on eligible dividends, capital gains, or withdrawals inside the account. So, a stock like Manulife stock can do two jobs at once: it can send cash back through dividends while still offering long-term upside if earnings keep growing.

The dividend gives the stock extra appeal. Manulife declared a quarterly common share dividend of $0.44 per share for the first quarter of 2026. That works out to $1.76 annually, yielding 3.4% at writing. Investors shouldn’t buy any stock for yield alone, but steady income can make it easier to stay invested when rate headlines keep shifting.

Looking ahead

The bigger opportunity comes from Asia and wealth management. Manulife stock has spent years building exposure to Asian insurance and retirement markets, where a growing middle class can create demand for protection and savings products. Its Global Wealth and Asset Management arm also gives it a way to benefit when markets recover, and investors put money back to work.

Valuation also leaves room for interest. Manulife stock doesn’t need a wild rerating to reward investors, and even now trades at 15.5 times earnings. If earnings climb, the dividend grows, and the market gives insurers a steadier multiple, shareholders could still do well from here. That’s the kind of setup I’d want inside a TFSA today.

Bottom line

There are risks. A recession could hurt sales and wealth assets. Market weakness could drag on fee income. Credit problems could weigh on investment returns. Currency swings can also affect reported results. And if rates fall sharply because the economy breaks, that wouldn’t exactly create a clean win. Yet even through all that, a $7,000 investment can bring in solid income during that volatility.

COMPANYRECENT PRICENUMBER OF SHARESANNUAL DIVIDENDANNUAL TOTAL PAYOUTFREQUENCYTOTAL INVESTMENT
MFC$53.76130$1.85$240.50Quarterly$6,988.80

In short, Manulife stock is strong for a TFSA built for a messy rate backdrop. It offers income, scale, global exposure, and a business model that doesn’t need perfect conditions to work. I wouldn’t put my entire TFSA in one financial stock, but if rates aren’t falling soon, I’d rather own a durable compounder than sit around waiting for the Bank of Canada to make the next move.

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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