A good dividend stock can spend months looking broken while the underlying business improves.
That’s one of the more useful quirks of investing. Share prices respond immediately to interest rates, earnings headlines, debt worries, and whatever has markets grumpy that morning. Dividends, meanwhile, depend on something much less theatrical: whether the company continues generating enough cash to pay them.
That distinction can create opportunity.
When sentiment turns against an income stock, I’m not interested simply because the yield went up. A 7% yield attached to deteriorating cash flow is just a warning sign wearing nice clothes. I want cash flow covering the payout, a reason earnings can grow, and ideally management still confident enough to increase the dividend. Capital Power (TSX: CPX) checks those boxes for me right now.
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What happened
Power producers are capital-intensive businesses. They need enormous amounts of money to buy and build generating plants, which means debt and financing costs matter. That can make investors especially twitchy when interest rates or bond yields move higher. CPX stock also reported a $43 million net loss in its latest quarter, which certainly doesn’t look gorgeous at first glance.
Yet accounting earnings don’t tell the whole story for a power producer. Depreciation, financing costs, acquisitions, and movements in commodity hedges can make net income rather lumpy. I’m more interested in the cash the assets actually produce and whether that supports the dividend.
That picture looks considerably better. CPX stock generated $328 million in adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) during the second quarter, up from $235 million a year earlier. AFFO per share reached $2.09. The dividend declared during the quarter was only $0.69 per share. That’s a rather comfortable amount of cash-flow coverage, even before looking at where future demand may come from.
Then Meta showed up
CPX stock owns approximately 12 gigawatts of generating capacity across 35 facilities in Canada and the United States, spanning natural gas, renewables, and battery storage. That increasingly puts it in the business of supplying something artificial intelligence (AI) desperately needs: electricity.
In July, Capital Power signed a greater-than-10-year agreement to provide 250 megawatts of capacity and energy for Meta Platforms’ new Alberta data centre. The load is expected to come online in the second half of 2028. That’s the kind of catalyst I like because it connects the AI boom directly to future demand rather than asking investors to squint at a vague press release containing the words “artificial intelligence.”
Data centres need enormous quantities of reliable electricity around the clock. Power producers capable of signing long-term contracts with hyperscale customers can turn that demand into more predictable cash flow. Suddenly, the market’s worries about yesterday’s earnings look a little less interesting.
A strong dividend
CPX stock recently raised its quarterly dividend another 2% to $0.70 per share, marking its 13th consecutive annual increase. At a recent share price around $67, the new annualized payout of roughly $2.82 produces a yield near 4.2%. Right now, here’s what just $7,000 could bring in.
| COMPANY | RECENT PRICE | NUMBER OF SHARES | ANNUAL DIVIDEND | ANNUAL TOTAL PAYOUT | FREQUENCY | TOTAL INVESTMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPX | $67.00 | 104 | $2.82 | $293.28 | Quarterly | $6,968.00 |
That combination is why I prefer dividend growth to simply hunting for the highest starting yield. Investors can collect meaningful income today while future increases potentially push the income produced by their original investment higher. Reinvesting those payments into additional Canadian dividend stocks can accelerate the effect further.
What’s more, CPX stock recently traded about 13% below its 52-week high of $77.02. That isn’t crash territory, but I don’t need a disaster to become interested in a good company.
Foolish takeaway
There are risks. CPX stock has expanded aggressively, including major U.S. acquisitions, which brings integration and financing risk. Electricity prices can fluctuate, projects can cost more than expected, and a heavily capital-intensive business can feel higher borrowing costs quickly.
That’s why I wouldn’t treat its dividend as guaranteed. Still, the company is producing strong AFFO, raising its payout, and signing long-term agreements tied directly to rising data centre electricity demand. Investors waiting until every worry disappears may discover the share price has already gone up.
For anyone buying stocks in Canada, I’d rather collect a roughly 4.2% yield while sentiment is still cautious than chase CPX stock after the market decides electricity demand was obvious all along.
