U.S.-Canada Trade War: Here’s What it Means for TSX Investors

Here’s why the U.S.-Canada trade war may not have a lasting impact on long-term investors despite short-term disruptions and market volatility.

| More on:
Man data analyze

Image source: Getty Images

With the U.S. and Canada imposing new tariffs on each other, TSX investors are bracing for potential market volatility. Some Canadian market sectors, especially those heavily tied to cross-border trade, could see short-term challenges. But remember, history has shown that trade disputes rarely have a lasting impact on long-term investors. This is because markets gradually adapt to the trade challenges, and businesses find new ways to handle tariffs, which helps well-diversified portfolios recover in the long run.

In this article, I’ll talk about the TSX sectors most affected by the trade war and explain why patient investors should focus on long-term growth rather than short-term uncertainty. I’ll also highlight a top safe stock you can consider right now that has the potential to perform well despite rising trade tensions.

U.S.-Canada trade war escalates

On February 1, U.S. president Donald Trump officially announced a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, targeting a wide range of goods, from industrial materials to consumer products. Energy exports from Canada face a slightly lower 10% tariff, but the impact still could be huge. The Trump administration justifies these tariffs by highlighting national security concerns.

However, the Canadian administration has strongly pushed back, arguing that these tariffs are unfair and politically motivated rather than based on actual trade violations. As a result, Canada has responded swiftly by announcing 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of U.S. goods. This includes a broad range of American exports, such as vehicles, aluminum, steel, agricultural products, and even consumer staples like coffee and orange juice. As both governments dig in their heels, businesses that rely heavily on U.S.-Canada trade could struggle to adjust in the short term.

Tariffs could hurt these TSX sectors the most

One of the industries that could feel the trade war’s immediate pressure is the auto sector. With potential tariffs on U.S.-made vehicles and trucks, both manufacturers and auto parts suppliers could face big disruptions. Notably, many Canadian factories already depend on American-made components, and higher costs may ultimately be passed on to consumers.

Similarly, the metals and mining sector could also see the impact. The U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum may disrupt exports, leading to price fluctuations and potential layoffs. However, we shouldn’t forget that these industries have weathered trade tensions before, but prolonged tariffs could weaken their competitive position in the North American market.

In addition, consumer goods companies could also get caught in the crossfire. Tariffs on everyday products like beer, spirits, and food imports from the U.S. could drive up costs for Canadian retailers as well as consumers. If the U.S.-Canada trade war continues, most grocery stores and restaurants that rely on American-sourced products may have to hike prices or seek alternative suppliers to protect their profit margins.

Trade tensions might not affect this safe TSX stock

While the trade tension might be unsettling for now, Foolish Investors might want to stay focused on a long-term approach. Some sectors will adapt more quickly than others, and certain stocks still look attractive to buy now despite the temporary trade turmoil. One such stock is Dollarama (TSX: DOL), the top Canadian discount retailer. The company offers budget-friendly essentials and seasonal products to consumers. Over the past decade, its stock has soared by more than 580%, proving its ability to thrive in various economic conditions.

Besides its solid financial growth trends, what really makes DOL stock attractive amid trade concerns is its expansion plan, as it aims for 2,200 stores by 2034. Even with trade disputes shaking up the stock market, Dollarama’s defensive business model and steady growth make it a reliable TSX stock to buy now and hold forever.

Fool contributor Jitendra Parashar has positions in Dollarama. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

More on Stock Market

a man celebrates his good fortune with a disco ball and confetti
Stock Market

Brace Yourself: My Wildest Stock Market Predictions for 2026

From AI to interest rates to real estate, here are three market calls I’m making for 2026 – and the…

Read more »

tsx today
Stock Market

TSX Today: What to Watch for in Stocks on Friday, December 12

As the TSX extends its record December rally, investors may look to commodity trends, earnings reactions, and global trade developments…

Read more »

how to save money
Stock Market

Tax Loss Selling: What to Sell and What to Buy in December 2025

Its tax loss selling season and that can effect the stock market. Here's what to sell and what's worth buying…

Read more »

tsx today
Stock Market

TSX Today: What to Watch for in Stocks on Thursday, December 11

With the TSX closing at a new high, investors may pause today to digest Fed rate cuts and BoC caution…

Read more »

tsx today
Stock Market

TSX Today: What to Watch for in Stocks on Wednesday, December 10

After trimming losses, the TSX could swing today as markets await clarity from the BoC and Fed policy decisions and…

Read more »

a man celebrates his good fortune with a disco ball and confetti
Stock Market

Prediction: Here Are the Most Promising Canadian Stocks for 2026

2025 was a great year for mining stocks. However, 2026 is setting up to be a bounce back year for…

Read more »

tsx today
Stock Market

TSX Today: What to Watch for in Stocks on Tuesday, December 9

With the index still hovering close to record highs, TSX stocks may remain range-bound today ahead of key U.S. labor…

Read more »

tsx today
Stock Market

TSX Today: What to Watch for in Stocks on Monday, December 8

After Friday’s pullback, the TSX benchmark could face a cautious start to the week today amid central bank uncertainty and…

Read more »