Energy stocks have caught the attention of every investor in the world since the Russia-Ukraine war began in February 2022. There is a lot happening in this space. Sanctions on Russia saw the country shift its oil and gas exports from Europe to Asia. North America replaced Russia as an exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe. These changing supply chain dynamics are taking another twist with Trump tariffs.
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A contrarian approach to energy stocks
U.S. president Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports and reciprocal tariffs on all trade partners. These tariffs have made other countries consider diversifying their trade partners and shifting the global trade map. Canada is considering diversifying its energy exports to reduce dependence on the United States. Whether Canada moves ahead with the diversification depends on the outcome of the upcoming elections.
If the tariffs do bring a structural change in the energy supply chain, a select few energy stocks could benefit. These stocks could benefit even if the tariffs are reversed because nations will not dismiss this incident and will continue diversifying trade to reduce the concentration risk.
Top energy stocks to invest in 2025
Exploration stock
Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) owns Canada’s largest oil and gas reserves. Last year, it acquired a lot of property, which doubled its debt level to $18.69 billion as of December 31, 2024, from $9.3 billion in the previous quarter. However, interest rate cuts will help the company manage its interest expense. The company will conduct oil and gas exploration on these properties, which will bring in cash flow for several years.
Before the pandemic, CNQ stock traded in the $15-$22 range. However, the changing energy supply chain increased the oil price and made US$70-75/barrel the new normal. CNQ’s stock price also got a new trading range of $30-$50.
As per CNQ’s free cash flow (FCF) allocation policy, it will pay 60% of its FCF as dividends since its debt levels have surpassed $15 billion. Even if the oil price falls to the US$64-65/barrel range, the company will continue to earn profit as its breakeven is US$40-US$45/barrel.
Dividend growth may continue, but at a slower pace of low to mid-single digits till the debt level reduces. You could consider buying the stock at its current level of $40 for its 5.8% dividend yield.
If tariffs are reversed, CNQ could see a surge in oil demand and oil prices. If Canada diversifies its energy exports, CNQ can benefit from more volumes. In either case, the company will benefit in the long term, making it a stock to buy and forget.
Midstream stock
Another interesting energy stock to consider investing in 2025 is AltaGas (TSX:ALA). The natural gas utility serves four U.S. jurisdictions, which brings in 56% of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). The remaining 44% comes from the midstream business of gathering, processing, and transporting natural gas. In midstream, the company has take-or-pay and fee-for-service contracts that generate immediate cash. Only 12% of the EBITDA comes from exports to Asian markets.
AltaGas utility model can continue paying regular dividends, and the midstream business can help grow the share price. It grows its cash flows by expanding its serviceable areas, which helps it grow its dividends. The company is targeting top data centre locations in the U.S. to provide natural gas for onsite power generation.
AltaGas’s presence in both the United States and Canada, with no exposure to energy trade between the two countries, puts it at a sweet spot in the tariff war.
You could consider buying AltaGas for its 3.18% dividend yield, which could grow by 5% annually for the next three years. The stock could also offer capital appreciation as it expands its operations.
Investing tip
While energy stocks could be a good long-term investment, consider diversifying your investments across different sectors.
