After wrapping up 2024 with a modest 16% gain, BlackBerry (TSX: BB) has stumbled out of the gate in 2025, shedding roughly 8% year to date. Trading near $5 per share with a $3 billion market cap, the company finds itself at a crossroads once again. Once known for its iconic smartphones, BlackBerry has been reinventing itself as a cybersecurity and Internet of Things (IoT) software provider, but the transition has been far from smooth.
With macro headwinds like global trade disruptions and geopolitical instability rattling investor confidence, many investors are now wondering what the next four years will look like for this Canadian tech icon. In this article, let’s dig into where BlackBerry could realistically be four years from now and whether today’s price could be seen as a smart long-term opportunity.
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Growing footprints of BlackBerry’s QNX
While BlackBerry stock has performed poorly so far this year, its operations tell a different story. Its growing momentum in the automotive tech space, especially through its QNX division, is catching investors’ attention. In early April, the Waterloo-based tech firm announced that Leapmotor, a fast-growing Chinese electric vehicle brand, chose QNX software as the foundation for its brand-new B10 SUV. It’s important to note that the B10 racked up over 30,000 presale orders within just 48 hours in China.
And that wasn’t the only partnership grabbing attention. Just a day later, BlackBerry’s QNX was revealed to be powering WeRide’s next-gen autonomous driving platform. WeRide is already deploying this ADAS (advanced driver assistance system) in Chery’s new electric vehicles, and the collaboration mainly focuses on bringing safer, smarter driver-assistance systems into more global markets.
Clearly, global automakers’ push for software-based features is giving BlackBerry’s QNX a fresh boost. And those announcements, alongside broader excitement in the artificial intelligence and electric vehicle sectors, have been helping the stock stay in the conversation despite broader volatility.
Signs of steady improvement in financials
If you look at BlackBerry’s latest numbers, they look pretty encouraging. For the fourth quarter of its fiscal year 2025 (ended in February), the company’s total revenue came in at US$141.7 million, beating analysts’ expectations. Its adjusted quarterly earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization hit US$21.1 million, which was better than projected, and its net income turned positive on an adjusted basis.
BlackBerry generated US$42 million in operating cash flow during the quarter, showing its actual progress on the books. In the latest quarter, the QNX segment itself brought in US$65.8 million in sales. While that was flat on a year-over-year basis, the encouraging part was its surging royalty backlog, which grew to US$865 million.
Why it could be a smart bet for long-term investors
From a long-term investor’s perspective, BlackBerry is finally starting to look more focused and aligned with where the tech sector is headed. The recent sale of its Cylance cybersecurity business brought in fresh capital and helped streamline operations. That has allowed the company to double down on higher-margin areas like automotive software and secure communications.
From teaming up with Microsoft on cloud deals to working with Intel and Bosch on safety-certified platforms, BlackBerry is steadily pushing deeper into industries that prioritize reliability and security.
So, while $5 a share may seem a long way from BlackBerry’s past highs, it could also mark a solid floor if the company keeps delivering. And four years down the line, today’s cautious investors might look back and see this as the beginning of its next phase.
