Trying to predict where a stock will be in five years is a bit like forecasting the weather. You can follow the trends, look at the data, and make educated guesses, but there are always surprises along the way. When it comes to Bombardier (TSX: BBD.B), though, there’s plenty of information to build a solid case for long-term optimism.
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Finally flying high
Bombardier has been through quite a transformation. Not that long ago, it was a sprawling transportation business with its hands in planes, trains, and even streetcars. Today, it’s laser-focused on one thing: business jets. That pivot has been key to its recent momentum. By shedding debt-heavy segments and honing in on high-margin aircraft, Bombardier stock is now a pure play on private aviation, and the strategy seems to be paying off.
In the first quarter of 2025, Bombardier stock reported revenue of $1.5 billion, up 19% from the same period last year. The company delivered 23 aircraft during the quarter, up from 20 the year before, and its services segment generated $495 million. That’s nearly a third of total revenue and a big reason why Bombardier’s business is starting to look more stable than cyclical.
The bottom line also looked strong. Adjusted net income was $68 million, a 55% improvement year over year, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.61. That’s well ahead of where it was in early 2024. Perhaps more importantly, free cash flow turned positive, with Bombardier stock generating $222 million in the quarter. For a company once plagued by debt concerns, that shift to positive cash flow is a big milestone.
Future focus
Looking forward, Bombardier stock has bold goals. For the full year, it expects over $9.25 billion in revenue and more than $1.55 billion in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). It also anticipates $500 million to $800 million in free cash flow. That’s money that could be used to pay down debt, invest in innovation, or even return to shareholders in time. Those projections are based on more than 150 expected aircraft deliveries in 2025, along with continued strength in the aftermarket services division.
The company’s order backlog stood at $14.2 billion at the end of March 2025. That’s a healthy cushion for future business. It shows that demand is strong for Bombardier’s flagship jets, including the Global 7500 and the soon-to-be-launched Global 8000. These aren’t commuter planes; they’re ultra-long-range, high-performance aircraft with price tags that stretch well into the tens of millions.
There’s a good argument that Bombardier stock is better positioned now than ever. It’s running a leaner, more focused operation with healthier financials and a clear growth strategy. Its expansion into defence and special mission aircraft, such as modified jets for surveillance or military use, could open new revenue streams. And the aftermarket business provides recurring cash flow that smooths out the bumps that come with aircraft sales.
Bottom line
With a current market cap of about $8.08 billion, Bombardier stock is still a mid-cap company in Canadian terms, but it’s acting like a much more mature and focused business. That bodes well for where it could be in five years. If the company hits its growth targets, expands its services segment, and stays disciplined with cash flow, it could become a global heavyweight in business aviation.
Will it be a smooth ride? Probably not. But Bombardier stock seems to be on the right flight path, and for long-term investors looking for an under-the-radar growth story, it might just be one stock you’ll wish you boarded early.
