Energy exports are one of the biggest contributors to Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP). Trump tariffs hit Canada, where it hurts the most by imposing a 10% tariff on oil exports to the United States. Remember, the Canadian economy has been through several major crises, and tariffs are something that companies can address.
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Oil prices and energy stocks
After the Russia-Ukraine war, the oil supply shock sent North American oil prices up US$80-$100/barrel, their highest level since the 2014 oil crisis. The 2014 crisis reduced oil prices from $112 to $62, making US$62 the standard price for oil companies, which resulted in consolidation in the industry. Suncor Energy (TSX:SU) and Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) have stood the test of time and reduced their costs significantly to make profits even at US$60/barrel.
The Trump tariffs have pulled down the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude price from above US$70 to around US$60/barrel, ending the windfall gains from the supply chain disruption triggered by geopolitical tensions.
Hence, Suncor Energy’s and Canadian Natural Resources’s share prices fell by 12% and 13%, respectively, since April 2025. The oil prices fell to around US$59/barrel on tariff news and then corrected to US$61-$62/barrel.
Suncor Energy
Suncor has high exposure to WTI crude. A US$1/bbl change in WTI impacts its adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) by $200 million. A $10 change surely will affect its FFOs. Thankfully, the company achieved its net debt target of $8 billion before the tariff war began.
It has been using its surplus cash to buy back shares, which helped it increase its dividend, even when net earnings fell alongside oil prices.
As its AFFO keeps fluctuating with oil prices, Suncor has kept a flexible debt target to maintain financial resilience. It aims to maintain net debt to AFFO of one when the WTI crude price is US$50. When WTI was US$75, its net debt to AFFO was 0.50, which means the company has the flexibility to stay profitable even when the WTI price falls.
Suncor can continue paying and growing dividends as long as WTI is around US$50.
Canadian Natural Resources
Unlike Suncor, Canadian Natural Resources has a diverse product mix of natural gas, natural gas liquids, heavy crude oil, light crude oil, bitumen, and synthetic crude oil. It keeps changing its product mix to reduce the impact of WTI price fluctuations. Even in the WTI segment, its breakeven is US$40-US$45 per barrel, which covers maintenance, capital, and dividends.
Even Canadian Natural Resources is affected by oil price fluctuations. However, it includes dividends in the cost, because of which it has always paid dividends even in a supply shock. The company tries to control its debt to maintain financial resilience.
So, while Suncor allocates 100% of its FCF in shareholder returns, Canadian Natural Resources allocates 60% (after dividend) when net debt is greater than $16 billion and 100% when net debt is $12 billion.
Canadian Natural Resources increased its debt by about $8.5 billion in the December 2024 quarter to acquire assets that were immediately accretive to earnings. It started production on the acquired assets and used the earnings to reduce its net debt by $1.4 billion to $17.3 billion in the first quarter. Its net debt to free cash flow is 1.8 times — way above that of Suncor.
However, Canadian Natural Resources, in its first-quarter earnings, assured investors that it can maintain its quarterly dividend of $0.5875 per share as long as WTI is $50.
Which is better: Suncor Energy or Canadian Natural Resources?
Both Suncor and Canadian Natural Resources are good dividend payers and have a strength of scale. Suncor has reduced its debt and improved its FCF. However, its FCF is sensitive to oil price shocks, which could force it to slash dividends or pause dividend growth. Canadian Natural Resources, on the other hand, has a high debt, but it is working on reducing it. It has more flexibility in terms of product mix and clients and is less affected by Trump tariffs.
They are trading at close valuations, bringing the decision down to the dividend yield. Suncor Energy can give you a 4.65% yield, while Canadian Natural Resources can give you a 5.5% yield, making the latter an attractive option.
