The Single Stock I’d Buy to Protect My TFSA During U.S. Trade Tensions

Worried about trade tensions? Then get in on this company that will remain essential. No matter what.

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Piggy bank with word TFSA for tax-free savings accounts.

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When trade tensions rise between Canada and the U.S., most investors think about commodities, tariffs, or the loonie’s wild swings. But one of the smartest ways to protect a Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) from these pressures may be hiding in plain sight. The North West Company (TSX:NWC) isn’t flashy, but it has the kind of fundamentals and operational setup that offer quiet strength when global politics get noisy.

About North West

North West is a retail company with deep Canadian roots, operating grocery and general merchandise stores in northern and remote communities. It also runs operations in Alaska and the Caribbean. While many Canadian companies rely on the U.S. for trade, North West leans heavily on domestic and community-focused demand. That’s important when the risk of cross-border tensions flaring up again looms large.

The dividend stock’s latest earnings for the quarter ended April 30, 2025 show it’s on solid footing. Sales rose 3.9% to $641.4 million, supported by same store sales gains and new store openings. Net earnings increased 2.2% to $27.7 million, and earnings per share (EPS) remained flat year over year at $0.53. The results were especially notable considering that last year’s quarter had an extra sales day. Excluding foreign exchange impacts, same store sales were up 3.5%, with food rising 4% in Canada.

Gross profit also grew to $214 million, a 7.2% increase. Management attributed the gains to a better sales mix and lower markdowns, including early success from the dividend stock’s “Next 100” strategy focused on operational excellence. Adjusted net earnings rose a solid 14.2% to $33.6 million when one-time costs and share-based compensation were stripped out.

Safe during instability

This is a dividend stock that serves markets where demand doesn’t swing with the S&P 500 or Chinese exports. These are communities that buy essentials, regardless of macroeconomic headlines. Even if U.S. tariffs or supply bottlenecks rattle more globally exposed businesses, North West’s operations remain insulated.

The dividend makes the stock even more appealing for TFSA investors. In June 2025, the dividend stock approved another quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share. At recent prices, that works out to a yield of about 3.3%. For a defensive stock, that’s nothing to sneeze at, especially when that income is tax-free inside a TFSA.

Considerations

Still, no stock is without its risks. North West operates in some of the most logistically challenging environments in the country. Fuel costs, weather disruptions, and even wildfires, like the ones currently impacting four of its communities, can all affect performance. There’s also the matter of government funding shifts. Much of North West’s customer base benefits from government transfer programs like Nutrition North Canada and child and family services funding. Any policy changes could affect consumer demand.

Another factor to consider is the dividend stock’s flat EPS despite rising revenue. Expenses are up too, driven by IT upgrades, compensation increases, and costs tied to its new strategic plan. These investments could pay off, but in the short term, they’ve pressured margins. Still, management seems confident that these upgrades will lead to better profitability in 2025 and 2026.

Bottom line

What makes North West compelling in a TFSA is its combination of reliability, dividend income, and low exposure to U.S. political risks. Unlike exporters or manufacturers, it won’t be hurt directly by a sudden tariff on Canadian steel or softwood lumber. Its presence in under-served areas also creates a kind of economic moat as competition is limited, and its customer base is sticky. And right now, investors could bring in ample dividend income from even a $5,000 investment.

COMPANYRECENT PRICENUMBER OF SHARESDIVIDENDTOTAL PAYOUTFREQUENCYTOTAL INVESTMENT
NWC.TO$47.66104$1.60$166.40Quarterly$4,956.64

For Canadians worried about another round of U.S. trade tension, this dividend stock provides a kind of shield. It’s a business built for the long haul. It may not make headlines, but it doesn’t have to. Quietly delivering consistent returns, serving remote communities, and keeping costs under control is more than enough to make North West my top choice to defend a TFSA. When markets shake, it stays put, and that’s exactly what some portfolios need.

Fool contributor Amy Legate-Wolfe has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends North West. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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