Investing in high-dividend stocks can be a double-edged sword, as a company’s dividend yield and stock price are inversely related. A high yield generally suggests that the stock has underperformed the broader market due to company-related headwinds.
In this scenario, investors should look beyond a company’s high dividend yield to ensure that the dividend payout is safe and sustainable across business cycles.
Timbercreek Financial (TSX:TF) is one TSX dividend stock that offers a high yield in October 2025. Valued at a market cap of $628 million, Timbercreek is forecast to pay shareholders an annual dividend of $0.69 per share, which translates to a forward yield of 9.1%.
The TSX stock went public in 2010 and has since returned -26% to shareholders. However, if we adjust for dividend reinvestments, cumulative returns stand at 155%. Since Timbercreek’s initial public offering, the TSX index has returned 289% to shareholders in dividend-adjusted gains.
We can see that the TSX dividend stock has trailed the broader markets by a wide margin. So, let’s see if you should own Timbercreek Financial for its 9.1% dividend yield right now.
Is this TSX dividend stock a good buy?
Timbercreek Financial is a leading non-bank commercial real estate lender in Canada, specializing in shorter-duration structured financing solutions. The company provides mortgage loans primarily secured by stabilized, income-producing properties, including multi-residential, office, and retail buildings in urban Canadian markets.
Timbercreek serves sophisticated commercial real estate investors who need faster execution and more flexible terms than traditional banks typically offer. These borrowers often require bridge financing for periods of up to five years to fund capital improvements, redevelopment projects, or property acquisitions. The loans are usually repaid through conventional financing once projects are completed or through property sales.
The company’s focus on income-producing real estate ensures steady cash flow to service loans, reducing default risk. Their service-oriented approach encompasses thorough underwriting, active management, and robust governance, delivering risk-adjusted returns for investors while meeting borrower needs.
Recently, Timbercreek expanded its credit facilities to $600 million from $510 million, with an additional $100 million accordion feature for future growth. This increase reflects lender confidence in Timbercreek’s financial position and strategic direction.
Strong Q2 performance
Timbercreek Financial delivered solid second-quarter results with steady progress on problem loans and portfolio growth. The commercial real estate lender posted net investment income of $25.2 million, while distributable income came in at $0.18 per share, in line with the historical quarterly range.
Timbercreek made significant headway in resolving troubled loans as management cleared close to $83 million in Stage 2 and Stage 3 loans since the last earnings call. This frees up capital for new investments and moves the portfolio closer to normal levels, while additional resolutions are expected through the rest of the year.
Portfolio growth accelerated with $168 million in new mortgage investments during the quarter. All new loans were targeted at multifamily and industrial properties, and the total mortgage portfolio reached just over $1.1 billion, an increase of $111 million from last year. Notably, multifamily assets account for 55% of the portfolio, providing stability during uncertain times.
Is the TSX stock undervalued?
Tariff-related uncertainty continues to impact certain deals as several transactions have been pushed to later in the quarter or into the second half of 2025.
Timbercreek’s credit facility renewal is nearly complete, featuring a substantial upsize and improved margin terms, which provide ample capacity to reach the company’s $1.3 billion portfolio target by year-end. Moreover, the weighted average interest rate on the portfolio dropped to 8.6% from last year’s 9.8% as rates normalized.
Timbercreek’s dividend currently yields about 9%, offering a 6% premium over short-term Canadian bonds. The stock trades roughly 18% below book value, creating potential upside as market conditions stabilize.
Analysts remain bullish and expect the TSX stock to gain 8% from its current levels, based on consensus price targets. If we adjust for dividends, cumulative returns could be closer to 17% over the next 12 months.
