Trying to predict where a stock will be in one year is less about fortune-telling and more about identifying the handful of forces that can realistically move it. You want to know what drives revenue, what can surprise earnings, and what could change investor sentiment fast. In the short run, expectations matter as much as results, so valuation and guidance can swing the stock even if the business stays fine. The smartest approach is to think in scenarios, not certainties, and make sure you can handle being wrong without panicking.
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CJT
Cargojet (TSX: CJT) is Canada’s leading air cargo carrier, and it operates like the country’s overnight logistics backbone. It flies time-sensitive freight for major customers and also runs domestic network routes, ACMI flying, and charter work. The business can look boring until you remember that e-commerce, medical shipments, and “I need it tomorrow” habits do not disappear. It earns its keep through reliability, a specialized fleet, and long-term customer relationships.
Cargojet stock’s recent performance tells a story of recovery, but not euphoria. Since hitting 52-week highs about three months ago, shares are now up about 45%. That gap matters if you’re asking about the next year, as it shows two things at once. Investors have already punished the stock when demand softened, but the market has also shown it will pay up when volumes and confidence return. That sets up a wide range of possible outcomes in 2026.
Into earnings
Now to the numbers investors actually trade on. In the third quarter of 2025, Cargojet reported total revenue of $219.9 million, down 10.5% year over year, while domestic revenue increased 6.3% year over year. Net earnings came in at $8.8 million versus $29.7 million a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.58. The key takeaway is simple. The top line dipped as certain lines slowed, but Cargojet stock still remained profitable, and it protected margins through cost discipline.
Profitability and cash flow were the brighter spots. Cargojet posted adjusted earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of $70.4 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.0%. Even more eye-catching, free cash flow was $152.4 million in the quarter, up 218.8% year over year, helped by stronger operating cash flow and proceeds from asset disposals.
Looking ahead
The forward setup for 2026 comes down to customer stickiness and capital discipline. Cargojet said it renewed long-term agreements with Amazon and DHL, extending them to 2029 and 2033, with options to extend further into the 2030s. That’s the kind of visibility that can anchor a one-year thesis, because it lowers the risk of a sudden demand cliff. Management also highlighted fleet flexibility and a focus on lowering interest costs, including redeeming $115 million of debentures due 2026 using proceeds from a 2025 note offering with a lower rate.
Valuation is where the “one-year” question gets interesting. Cargojet stock shows a market cap of around $1.36 billion and a trailing price to earnings of around 12. In short, Cargojet stock may look cheap in the rear-view mirror, but the next year depends on whether earnings rebuild enough to justify a higher multiple again. Meanwhile, you can earn a solid income from a $7,000 investment with a 1.5% dividend yield.
| COMPANY | RECENT PRICE | NUMBER OF SHARES | ANNUAL DIVIDEND | ANNUAL TOTAL PAYOUT | FREQUENCY | TOTAL INVESTMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJT | $94.25 | 74 | $1.40 | $103.60 | Quarterly | $6,974.50 |
Bottom line
So, is Cargojet stock one to invest in if you’re focused on where it could be in one year? It can be, if you believe 2026 brings steadier trade patterns and Cargojet keeps converting its contract stability into improving profits. The bull case is simple. Long-term customer deals, resilient domestic demand, strong margins, and the ability to generate meaningful free cash flow can pull the stock closer to its higher historical range. The bear case is also simple, however. If global uncertainty keeps pressuring ACMI and charter flying, earnings can stay muted, and the stock can chop around, even with good operations. If you buy it, you’re betting that 2026 looks more normal than 2025 did, and you should be comfortable with volatility along the way.
