Oil and gas stocks saw some correction in April after the U.S.-Israel–Iran war sent them to a new all-time high in March. Canada’s two largest natural gas producers — Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) and Tourmaline Oil (TSX:TOU) — saw their stock prices fall 8.9% and 12.8%, respectively, from their all-time highs of March 20, 2026. The dip came when the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8, looking to reach negotiations. West Texas Intermediate crossed US$110 and then fell below US$100. Is this dip similar to the June 2022 dip after the Russia-Ukraine war? It is difficult to tell.
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The repeat of the 2022 energy shock
When Russia waged a war on Ukraine in February 2022, oil prices touched US$125 in four months and then witnessed a sharp correction of 20-25% in a month. An 8.9% dip does not signal a sharp correction but rather profit booking by investors. The stock could rise further if the Iran situation escalates. At present, no other country is participating in the war, and America is losing patience with the cost of the war.
If the war ends sooner than expected, oil and gas prices could stabilize immediately, and if the war continues, they may stabilize in a year. Take the case of the Russia-Ukraine war, the oil price fell drastically from over US$100 in June 2022 to US$91 in August, to US$76 in December 2022, to US$68 in May 2023. During this one year, the largest oil consumers secured an alternate oil supply to ease the energy shock. Russia’s oil export shifted from Europe to Southeast Asia and from the U.S. dollar to other currencies. Europe started buying oil from the U.S. and Canada.
This history could repeat itself with the war in Iran, as sanctions on Iran no longer apply, and oil consumers will find alternative sources. Another shift in the supply chain could revise the oil prices. Canada could emerge as the alternative supplier.
Canadian stock to benefit from supply chain shift
Canada is seizing this opportunity and diversifying its export markets. It started operations of its first liquified natural gas (LNG) export facility, LNG Canada, in June 2025. It is building Phase 2 of LNG Canada and two more facilities, Woodfire LNG and Cedar LNG. By the end of the decade, Canada could export more LNG.
Canadian Natural Resources and Tourmaline Oil will be the key beneficiaries of this export opportunity, as they have the largest natural gas reserves and a cost advantage. Every dip is a buying opportunity for these stocks as a new market will open up for Canadian natural gas producers.
Until now, they exported largely to the United States, which itself has rich oil and gas reserves and could not get a better price for LNG. Now, when they diversify their markets, their production capacity could increase, which means the share price may not see steep corrections.
The next three to four years could see volatility and a share price rally. CNQ will use these cyclical gains to reduce its debt from $16 billion to $13 billion to ensure its financing cost does not increase its breakeven price. Tourmaline also plans to reduce its net debt to zero over the next two years by diverting surplus cash flows to debt repayment.
Canadian Natural Resources is a stock worth holding for decades
Between Tourmaline and Canadian Natural Resources, the latter is a stock to buy and hold for decades for its strong dividend growth. Canadian Natural Resources has been paying and growing dividends for 25 years in a row. Although the dividend growth rate has slowed from double-digit to single-digit in the last two years, it is a stock worth buying. You could consider investing $2,000 on every 8-10% dip and lock in a 3.8-4% yield.
