Oil prices don’t move politely. This week, WTI crude fell sharply toward $93 a barrel as a fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran sparked hopes that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz might resume — after weeks of disruption that had pushed Brent above $100.
Just this morning, prices fell again after Iran said the Straight is “completely open” to commercial ships. Commodity traders appeared pleased that a fresh new cease-fire agreement between Iran and Lebanon had held overnight. But President Trump also said that the U.S. will keep blockading ports in Iran, raising questions about how open the Straight really is.
We’ve all seen how quickly these situations can change. Bottom line: Volatility isn’t over. It’s just taking a breath.
For Canadian energy investors, moments like this are worth paying attention to. Not to knee-jerk trade on the headline news, but to ask a more useful question: Which companies can still generate cash, protect returns, and keep growing when crude seems to be moving in two directions at once?
If you’re a long-term TSX investor looking for energy exposure that holds up in a choppy market — not just when oil is running hot — these two companies are worth a close look.
Source: Getty Images
Cenovus Energy: A Supply-Chain Giant Built for Turbulence
Cenovus Energy (TSX:CVE) is one of Canada’s largest integrated energy producers, and the integration is the point. With oil sands production upstream and refining assets downstream, Cenovus doesn’t live and die on a single crude price. When upstream margins get smaller, refining can pick up some of the slack. When crude runs hot, the upstream business captures it. That kind of structure matters a lot when WTI swings $15 in a week.
Over the past year, Cenovus also got meaningfully bigger. Its acquisition of MEG Energy added roughly 110,000 barrels per day of low-cost oil sands production and deepened its long-life reserves — the kind of assets that hold their value across cycles. For 2026, management forecast upstream production of 945,000 to 985,000 boe/d after folding in MEG, with first oil from West White Rose expected in the second quarter.
In terms of financials, Cenovus reported 2025 revenue of $49.7 billion and total operating margin of $10.6 billion, with a fourth-quarter profit that beat estimates. Shares trade at a trailing P/E of around 16 — reasonable for a large integrated producer — and carry a dividend yield of 2.3%. That yield is modest, but it’s real cash in your account while you wait for the next oil cycle to play out. Big acquisitions can get messy and crude can still turn fast, but Cenovus has the scale and asset mix to absorb both.
Athabasca Oil: A Leaner Company With More Torque
Athabasca Oil (TSX:ATH) is the more aggressive option here. Its thermal oil assets deliver dependable production, and its Duvernay exposure gives it a second growth path that most pure oil sands companies don’t have. In 2025, it reported revenue of $1.31 billion, net income of $245.1 million, and adjusted funds flow of $504 million — or $1.01 per share. Free cash flow hit $217 million, and management kept its 2026 guidance in place, calling out production and cash-flow-per-share growth.
At a market cap of around $5.4 billion and a trailing P/E near 23, Athabasca isn’t cheap in absolute terms. But that valuation reflects a company that has genuinely cleaned up its balance sheet and steadily improved operations, not one still trading on promise.
Athabasca’s stock moves more in line with crude than Cenovus’s does. But if you want torque while oil is moving, that sensitivity is a feature, not a bug.
Bottom line
If you’re a long-term investor who wants survive a volatile oil market — not just profit from a rising one — these two stocks make sense. Cenovus gives you scale, integration, and a dividend you can reinvest. Athabasca gives you leverage to the upside if crude prices rise. Put a $7,000 TFSA contribution into Cenovus at the recent price of $35.50, and you’re looking at roughly 197 shares generating about $157.60 in annual dividends. Sure, it’s not a fortune, but it’s a good starting position in one of Canada’s most durable energy companies.
The ceasefire may hold. Oil may continue to drift lower. But the structural uncertainty in the Middle East hasn’t been resolved. It’s simply been paused. For investors who want to be ready before the next oil move rather than react to it, now’s the time to invest.
