Canada’s Inflation Problem Isn’t Over: 2 Stocks I’m Watching Closely

Inflation is back in the headlines, and two TSX stocks sit right where the pressure hits consumers and food costs.

Amy Legate-Wolfe

Author Bio Amy became interested in investing in 2018 after having her first daughter. After receiving a masters degree in journalism from Western University, she became frustrated that the finance industry remained a confusing place for Canadians like her: new parents, millennials, and other young people who needed to understand their finances. Now, Amy focuses on tech companies and renewable energy for growth opportunities, coupling that with long-term investing strategies and equities. She also provides investors with a daily newsletter, Canada Stock Digest, for daily market updates. Her work can also be found at Canada's National Observer, where she writes on the business side of climate action. Before joining Motley Fool Canada, Amy wrote for major news organizations including HuffPost, CTVNews.ca, and CBC. When she’s not researching investing strategies, Amy’s time is pretty much monopolized by her two wild daughters, but in what little spare time she has she loves to do yoga, go on walks with her dog, and travel with her husband. Social Media Follow Amy on LinkedIn and Canada Stock Digest. Favorite Investment Quote “October: This is one of the particularly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.” – Mark Twain

Published June 7, 9:00 am EDT

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Key Points

Couche-Tard can stay resilient because people still buy gas, coffee, and quick essentials even when budgets tighten.
Nutrien gives exposure to food and fertilizer economics, but earnings can swing with potash and nitrogen prices.
Together they offer a consumer-side and farm-input hedge, with dividends adding some cash returns while you wait.

Canada’s consumer price index rose 2.8% year over year in April, up from 2.4% in March. Gasoline did much of the damage, with prices up 28.6%. Energy jumped 19.2%, and even excluding gasoline, prices still rose 2%. So, while inflation no longer looks like the monster it was in 2022, it also hasn’t left the room.

That creates a tricky market for Canadian investors. Rate-cut hopes can fade fast when fuel, food, and transport costs climb. Consumers feel squeezed, and companies feel squeezed too. I’m watching two TSX stocks that sit close to inflation’s pressure points: Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSX: ATD) and Nutrien (TSX: NTR).

chart reflected in eyeglass lenses — Source: Getty Images

ATD

Couche-Tard operates Circle K, Couche-Tard, Ingo, and other banners across North America and Europe. It sells fuel, snacks, coffee, meals, tobacco, and daily essentials. When inflation rises, shoppers may cut restaurant meals or delay big purchases. Yet they still stop for gas, coffee, and quick items on the road.

The latest quarter showed why ATD stays on my list. Revenue rose 4.3% to US$21.8 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Adjusted earnings reached US$751 million, up 17.2% from last year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 19.1% to US$0.81. Same-store merchandise revenue also increased 3.1% in Canada during the first three quarters.

That’s steady, practical growth that doesn’t depend on a hot trend. Couche-Tard can also use its scale to manage supply costs, refine pricing, and keep expanding through acquisitions. The dividend remains small, with the latest quarterly payout at $0.215 per share, but ATD has long leaned more toward compounding than high income.

The risk comes from fuel demand. Same-store road transportation fuel volumes fell in the U.S. and Europe in the quarter, even as Canada improved. If high prices reduce driving, margins and volumes can wobble. ATD also needs to manage acquisition costs and integration. Still, as inflation keeps reshaping consumer behaviour, this remains one of the strongest defensive growth names on the TSX.

NTR

Nutrien stock gives investors a very different inflation angle. It’s one of the world’s largest providers of crop inputs and services, with potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and retail operations. Food inflation starts long before groceries hit shelves. Fertilizer prices, crop economics, global supply, weather, and energy costs all matter. Nutrien stock sits right in that chain.

Its first-quarter 2026 results looked much stronger than last year. Net earnings reached US$139 million, or US$0.27 per share. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came in at US$1.11 billion, and adjusted EPS reached US$0.51. Potash adjusted EBITDA climbed to US$578 million, helped by higher global benchmarks and record sales volumes. Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA rose to US$482 million.

Nutrien stock also returned US$409 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in the quarter. The company declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.55 per share. That income adds appeal, especially for investors who want exposure to essential agriculture without trying to time crop prices perfectly.

The risk? Nutrien stock can move sharply with fertilizer prices. It’s more cyclical than Couche-Tard. A drop in potash or nitrogen benchmarks could pressure earnings quickly. Farmers can also delay purchases if crop margins weaken. So, Nutrien stock isn’t a classic defensive stock, but it can benefit when food, energy, and supply concerns stay elevated.

Bottom line

I wouldn’t buy either only because inflation looks sticky. The stronger case comes from business quality. Couche-Tard has a proven record of disciplined growth. Nutrien stock owns assets tied to global food security. Those traits can help investors stay patient when every CPI report jolts the market again this year. Plus, there’s a small, but consistent, dividend to look forward to even with $7,000 in each.

COMPANY	RECENT PRICE	NUMBER OF SHARES	ANNUAL DIVIDEND	ANNUAL TOTAL PAYOUT	FREQUENCY	TOTAL INVESTMENT
NTR	$97.13	72	$2.99	$215.28	Quarterly	$6,993.36
ATD	$78.40	89	$0.82	$72.98	Quarterly	$6,977.60

Together, ATD and Nutrien stock offer two ways to watch inflation. One tracks the consumer side. The other tracks the farm-input side. Neither stock removes risk, but both connect to costs Canadians feel every day. If inflation lingers, these are two Canadian stocks I’d keep close.