Lundin Gold Is a Repeat TSX30 Winner Worth Watching

Find out how Lundin Gold stands out in the TSX 30 for its performance. Analyze key growth drivers and investment strategies.

| More on:
Key Points
  • Lundin Gold remains a top performer in the TSX30 list, driven by surging gold prices and strategic debt management, offering substantial dividend payouts.
  • While share price growth has normalized, continued high variable dividends and potential 10-20% appreciation make Lundin Gold an attractive investment at $90.

Remember when Bombardier (TSX: BBD.B) was consistently named in the TSX 30 list. While the business jet maker’s performance has normalized, the new stock making the list for the second year in a row is Lundin Gold (TSX: LUG). TSX30 filters the top 30 performing stocks on the TSX based on the dividend-adjusted share price appreciation over the last three years ending June 30. The dividend-adjusted return includes both dividends and share price appreciation to arrive at total return, making dividend and growth stocks comparable.

panning for gold uncovers nuggets and flakes

Source: Getty Images

Why do TSX30 stocks matter?

Investors should look at the TSX 30 to determine which stocks or sectors are outperforming the market. Growth cycles last three years. Identifying outperformers in the first year can help you shortlist stocks for fundamental research. You can identify patterns and growth drivers of such stocks.

For instance, Bombardier made the TSX30 list for three consecutive years: 2023, 2024, and 2025. Its growth driver was its turnaround story, which took three years to unfold. Now, the stock has normalized growth.

Had you invested in Bombardier in September 2023 when it first appeared on the TSX 30 list, you could have enjoyed a 560-600% rally by now. If you invested in September 2024 as well, you could have enjoyed a 280% share price appreciation. For those who invested in September 2025, the stock gave a 95% return.

The new trend in the TSX30 list of 2025 and 2026 is gold stocks.

Lundin Gold: A repeat TSX30 winner

Lundin Gold appeared on the TSX30 list for the first time in 2025, ranking second with a dividend-adjusted share price appreciation of 775% for the three years ended June 30, 2025. In the second appearance, it ranked 23rd, with adjusted share price appreciation of 484% for the three years ended June 30, 2026.

Driving Lundin Gold’s stock price was a significant surge in gold prices as U.S. tariffs encouraged global central banks to increase gold reserves. Gold was among Canada’s top exports after oil and gas. In the three years ended June 30, 2025, gold price surged from US$2,200 to over US$5,000.

Lundin Gold used this upcycle to repay all its debt and reduce its all-in sustaining cost (AISC) to US$918 in the first half of 2025. With the average realized gold price increasing by 42% year over year to US$3,231 per ounce in the first half of 2025, its profits surged. The company stuck to its dividend policy of paying a fixed quarterly dividend of $0.3 per share and using 50% of the normalized free cash flow to pay variable dividends. It paid a $1.16 dividend per share in the first half of 2025.

The upcycle continued in 2026 as Lundin Gold paid a $5.45 dividend per share in the first half of 2026. This was because its average realized gold price increased to US$4,660 per ounce. With the U.S.-Iran war keeping oil prices elevated, the gold price is likely to remain above US$4,000 per ounce, hinting at a full year of strong free cash flows.

Is Lundin Gold a buy at $90?

Although gold prices have remained high through 2026, share price appreciation has normalized for Lundin Gold, with a 20% rally in the 12 months ended June 30, 2026. Its 260% rally in the 12 months ended June 30, 2025, will continue to skew the three-year return used by the TSX30.

The market has already priced in US$4,000+ gold price as Lundin Gold stock trades at a 16x forward price-to-earnings ratio, closer to the March 2025 ratio of 15x. For its share price to surge above 50% to around $140, either gold prices have to surge significantly and reach closer to $5,000, or Lundin Gold has to increase production. The latter is unlikely, as the miner is on track to achieve its 2026 gold production guidance of $475,000-$525,000 ounces, a 4.5% difference from the 2025 output of $498,315 ounces. As for the gold price, it may fall if the Fed hikes interest rates.

The only reason to buy Lundin Gold at $90 is for its high variable dividends and a 20-30% share price appreciation if the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged. The high dividends are likely to stay for some time.

Fool contributor Puja Tayal has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

More on Metals and Mining Stocks

nugget gold
Metals and Mining Stocks

Montage Gold Stock Soared 3,200%: Is It Still Worth Buying?

Given its strong construction and exploration progress, coupled with elevated gold prices, Montage Gold could remain an attractive opportunity for…

Read more »

gold prices rise and fall
Metals and Mining Stocks

Avino Silver & Gold Mines Stock Nearly Tenfolds — What’s Behind the Rally?

Avino Silver & Gold Mines (TSX:ASM) has been an explosive gainer, thanks to the precious metal run.

Read more »

The letters AI glowing on a circuit board processor.
Metals and Mining Stocks

This Canadian Stock Has AI Upside I Didn’t Expect

This Canadian stock boasts strong AI upside, despite being neither a software developer nor a chipmaker.

Read more »

Agricultural harvesting at the last light of day, aerial view.
Dividend Stocks

Potash Power Play: Why This Overlooked Commodity Could Be Canada’s Trump Card

Canada’s potash dominance gives Nutrien a strategic edge as trade tensions rise, making this overlooked commodity worth watching closely.

Read more »

running robot changes direction
Stocks for Beginners

Canada Doubles Steel and Aluminum Tariffs to 50%: What it Means for Algoma Steel Investors

Higher tariffs can help a Canadian steelmaker win orders, but they don’t guarantee profits, and Algoma still needs to prove…

Read more »

heavy construction machines needed for infrastructure buildout
Metals and Mining Stocks

Why Algoma Steel Could Be Canada’s Best Tariff-Retaliation Play

Canada’s escalating tariff battle with the United States could give Algoma Steel’s growing focus on domestic plate demand an important…

Read more »

gold prices rise and fall
Metals and Mining Stocks

Down 1% After Earnings, Is Franco-Nevada a Good Stock to Buy Now?

Franco-Nevada stock could be a good long-term hedge for fiat currency and inflation, especially when the stock pulls back meaningfully…

Read more »

panning for gold uncovers nuggets and flakes
Metals and Mining Stocks

Down 5% After Earnings, Is Barrick Gold a Good Stock to Buy Now?

Barrick Gold stock slid after record Q2 production and a $4 billion Newmont deal. Here's whether the pullback is a…

Read more »