There’s something about farming stocks that feels steady. Fertilizer isn’t flashy, but it’s necessary. No matter what’s going on in the markets, crops still need nutrients, and someone has to supply them. That’s where Nutrien (TSX:NTR) comes in. As the largest crop input company in the world, it’s a giant in the fertilizer industry and a key name on the TSX. But over the past couple of years, Nutrien stock has been on a bit of a bumpy ride. So, what can investors expect from it in 2025?
Into earnings
Let’s start with what’s been going on. Nutrien stock’s performance through 2024 was not exactly rosy. It dealt with falling potash and nitrogen prices, and that put pressure on profits. In its fourth-quarter earnings report, Nutrien posted $700 million in net earnings, which was down a sharp 45% from the same quarter in 2023.
Revenue also took a hit, falling 11% to land at $26 billion for the year. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) came in at $5.4 billion, which marked a 12% year-over-year decline. These numbers might sound heavy, but the fertilizer industry tends to move in cycles. Prices rise and fall depending on demand, production cuts, and global supply chain issues.
A rebound underway
What’s interesting is that even though 2024 was tough, Nutrien stock started to rebound heading into 2025. After losing 35% over the past two years, the stock has gained 12% since the beginning of the year at writing. That’s a strong comeback, especially in a market that hasn’t exactly been giving away wins. The uptick was partly due to some good news out of the global potash market. One of Nutrien’s competitors cut production, and that led to higher potash prices. Since potash is one of Nutrien’s core products, the price bump helped give it some momentum.
That said, the road ahead still has a few potholes. Nutrien stock’s dividend is generous, currently yielding just over 4%, but it’s coming with a high payout ratio. In the past, the company’s dividend has been a strong reason to hold the stock, especially for income investors. But if earnings don’t pick up soon, there could be pressure on how sustainable that dividend really is. Right now, the market seems to believe Nutrien stock will recover enough to support it, but it’s something worth watching.
Looking ahead
There’s also the bigger picture to consider. Fertilizer demand is heavily tied to global food production. Prices can swing with weather patterns, trade policies, and geopolitics. Right now, the trend looks supportive. With food demand rising globally and supply chains still recovering, companies like Nutrien stock could see better pricing power throughout the year.
Nutrien’s management has provided a clearer outlook for 2025. It expects to see profit growth driven by stronger fertilizer volumes, better pricing, and higher margins from its retail segment. That segment, which includes seed, crop protection products, and services to farmers, actually held up fairly well last year. So if the fertilizer pricing environment improves, Nutrien stock is in a decent position to benefit on multiple fronts.
The next big checkpoint will come on May 14, 2025, when Nutrien stock releases its first-quarter earnings. Investors will be looking closely to see if the stronger potash prices and more favourable trends are translating into real results. If so, there could be more upside ahead. If not, the stock may level out again until the next round of earnings.
Bottom line
So, where does that leave investors? Nutrien stock isn’t the kind of stock that will double overnight. But it has a solid foundation, global reach, and exposure to an industry that isn’t going away. It’s not immune to downturns, as 2024 clearly showed, but it has shown an ability to bounce back. For long-term investors who can handle a bit of volatility, 2025 could mark a return to form for this Canadian heavyweight. And for those who just like a good, steady dividend while they wait? Nutrien might be worth digging into.
